Abstract:
According to three regional heavy rain process appeared in Sichuan, during 14~19 July, 22~24 July, 17~19 August, 2010.It comparative analysed the precipitation forecast and in middle and high-level circulation of GRAPES mode from Chengdu Regional Center and National Meteorological Center, the results got by synoptic examination as follows:(1) the G-SC model forecast precipitation range slants are of small, weak intensity, rainfall center existences big deviation, The G-BJ model can forecast the main area of precipitation falling, but precipitation intensity is weak, the false strong water center slants more, (2) predict weather system of GRAPES mode on the east to Tibetan Plateau is weakly, the G-BJ on the prediction of large scale circulation system is better than the G-SC mode; (3) the sounding profile figures from Jiulong station and Mingshan station show that the temperature and wind speed in the upper troposphere from G-SC mode does not vary with height change, specific humidity in troposphere low-level smaller than observation, therefore, the intensity and distribution of temperature and wind and humidity field are expected to be improved, (4) There is a great room to improve the GRAPES mode from Chengdu regional center in the initial value, height intension, surface temperature and so on, which need to do some work on data assimilation, boundary layer scheme, terrain processing.