Abstract:
By using upper-air and surface observation data, automatic station data, as well as observatory data of south-west vortex atmospheric science test in 2010, the prediction capability analyses on SiChuan heavy rainstorm process during 14-18 July in 2010 have been done for GRAPES model, AREM model, MM5 model and RUC system based on WRF model which run in South-West Region Meteorology Center.The results show that although all models have a certain degree prediction capability from precipitation, affecting systems, as well as surface and upper-air meteorological elements prediction on single point, there are differences such as precipitation areas, precipitation intensity, affecting systems prediction and so on.When analyzing the prediction of models on definite point, the difference is more obvious.Comparatively, the prediction result of WRF mode is better than that provided by the other models.The further cause analyses on bring about model prediction differences should been done