灰色拓扑方法在广元稻瘟病预测中的应用
Application on the Gray Topological Method in Predicting Pyricularia Oryzae Cavara in Guangyuan
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摘要: 病虫害预测预报是粮食安全风险管理的重要内容之一,灰色理论用于病虫害预测是一项有益的探索。以水稻稻瘟病预报为例,本文详细阐述灰色系统理论的建模方法,利用广元市近20年水稻稻瘟病发生面积资料,建立了1个GM (1,1)拓扑预测模型,用于稻瘟病趋势预测,并取得了较为满意的结果。Abstract: Forecast and prediction of crop diseases and insect pests are an important part of food security risk management.Gray theory for the pest prediction is a useful exploration.Using the data of Pyricularia oryzae Cavara in Guangyuan for 20 years, and based on the gray topological method, GM (1, 1) model is built and gets satisfactory results for the the pest prediction.
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