云南大理州区域性强降雨的气候特征及影响系统分析
Analysis on Climatic Characteristics and Its Influence System of Regional Heavy Rainfall in Dali
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摘要: 利用大理州12个站1962~2009年的逐日气象观测资料及MICAPS资料,对区域性强降雨过程的变化特征及影响系统进行了分析。结果表明:大理州区域性强降雨年内除12月外均有可能出现,主要集中在湿季5~10月,占全年的95.4%,干季11月~次年4月则仅占4.6%。大理州区域性大雨过程从90年代中期开始有增加的趋势。大理州冬春季区域性强降雨的主要影响系统是:南支槽、孟加拉湾风暴,切变线、低涡、两高间辐合区等。夏秋的影响系统除了上述春季的影响系统外,还有倒槽和南海西行台风形成的倒槽等。另外,分析了2003年8月16日区域性暴雨典型个例的影响系统及物理量场特征,并归纳出预报着眼点,为区域性强降雨的预报提供参考。Abstract: In this paper, by using the rainfall data of 12 of observatories Dali from 1962 to 2009, we analyzed the climatic characteristics and its influence system of the regional heavy rainfall in Dali Yunnan Province.Resultsindicated that the regional heavy rainfall occurred in all season especially in May to October.The regional heavy rainfall were increasing trend since the mid 1990.Its influence systems were southern trough, Bengal Bay Storm, shear line, vortex, convergence area and inverted trough.The influence system and physical quantity of a regional very heavy rainfall in Dali Yunnan Province in August 2003 was diagnosed and its forecasting focus was suggested.
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