MM5模式中积云参数化方案在西南地区适应性的进一步试验分析

Further Analysis on Application of Cumulus Convection Parameterization Schemes with MM5 Model over Southwest Region

  • 摘要: 针对四川盆地4次暴雨过程,利用MM5中尺度数值模式,进行了Grell和Kuo对流参数化方案及两重区域采用不同方案组合的数值试验,分析了不同试验对降水的模拟能力。结果表明,不同试验方案在降水落区、强度、演变及降水性质分配上存在一定程度的差异。细网格区域降水强度及落区主要由本区域所采用的积云参数化方案所决定。模式采用Kuo方案预报的雨区少动,主要降水落区偏西、偏南,降水强度偏弱,采用Grell方案与粗网格采用Kuo方案而细网格采用Grell方案预报结果接近,能够较好地预报雨区东移,降水强度预报更接近实况。Kuo方案以对流降水为主,Grell方案模拟的以非对流降水与对流降水两种性质降水各占一定比例,有小幅度变化,可能更能反映实际降水性质。过程分析结合统计检验表明,两重区域均采用Grell方案预报效果相对较好。同时也看到,没有哪种对流参数化方案是完备的。发展具有区域特色的对流参数方案有着重要和实际意义。

     

    Abstract: As to four heavy rainstorm processes, numeric experiments of Grell and Kuo cumulus convection parameterization schemes and their composition have been done by using MM5 meso-scale model, and simulating abilities for forecasting precipitation have been analysed.The results show that there are some difference in precipitation areas, precipitation intensity, precipitation evolution and its properties different experiment schemes.Precipitation intensity and distribution of finer net grid area depends on cumulus parameterization scheme used in the area.The precipitation area simulated by using Kuo scheme is moving less, the main precipitation avea appears more in west and south avea.precipitation intensity is weaker.The results using Grell scheme in two integral areas are almost similar to that of composition experiment using Kuo scheme in coarser area and Grell scheme in finer area.Two experiment schemes have abilities to forecast eastern moving of precipitation areas, and precipitation intensities are more closed to real-time precipitation.Convectively precipitation is mainly when using Kuo scheme.Convectively and non-convectively precipitation are in proportion in total precipitation when using Grell scheme, which maybe reflect real precipitation better.Process analysis combined statistic checks show that simulating results using Grell scheme in two integral areas are better.At the same time, it is obvious there is no perfect convection parameterization scheme.Developing convection parameterization scheme with regional characteristic has an important and actual meaning.

     

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