成都区域中心动力气候模式产品降尺度应用业务系统

Downscaling Interpretation and Application System of Dynamical Climate Model Products in Chengdu Meteorological Center

  • 摘要: 利用动力气候模式(T63)产品进行降尺度解释应用,是目前以及未来开展气候预测的主要手段。本系统基于国家气候中心下发的气候模式产品、NCEP/NCAR 500 hPa高度场、西南区域84个代表站温度降水历年资料,采用动力统计相结合的技术方法,建立了“成都区域气象中心动力气候模式解释应用系统”,该系统以统计降尺度方法在西南区短期气候预测中的业务化应用为目的,实现了统计方法与动力模式相结合的业务化,经过5年业务回报试验和近2年的预测业务运行,结果表明:该系统对西南区域的月尺度温度和降水有较好的预报能力,已成为西南区域气候中心日常业务的主要参考依据。本文主要介绍该系统平台的各子系统性能及采用的技术方法。

     

    Abstract: It is the mainly method to do climate prediction that using the dynamical climate model products (T63) to at present and in the future.The operational system-climate model interpretation system in Chengdu Regional Meteorology Center has been established basing on the model products distributed by national climate center of China, the data of geopotential height on 500hPa provided by NCEP/NCAR, climate data of the 84 representative stations in southwest China and the statistical dynamic method.The purpose of this system is to use the downscaling method to perform the climate prediction in southwest China, and this make the combination of statistical method and the dynamical method in usual operation.This system has good performance on predict the monthly precipitation and temperature indicated by the test results of two years hindcast and one year operation, and has becoming main reference factor in usual operation at Southwest Climate Center in China.The performances and technological methods about the system were introduced in this paper.

     

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