强对流天气下成都管制区航班保障天气特征与通行能力影响研究

Research on Weather Characteristics and Air Traffic Capacity Impacts in Chengdu Control Area under Severe Convective Weather

  • 摘要: 利用2022—2023年成都双流机场和天府机场的天气资料和航空运营资料,对两场的天气类型和延误率进行了统计分析,并结合实例从气象与航空运输角度总结强对流天气对航班运行影响,尝试构建了一个基于天气覆盖范围、强度与移动类型的动态通行能力评估模型。结果表明:成都管制区的强对流天气类型主要为热力性和系统性两种;热力性强对流形成孤立、不连续云团,具有分散、短暂特性,多表现为雷暴伴小阵雨,偶伴短时大风,对航班运行影响有限;系统性强对流受西南涡、切变线等中小尺度系统驱动,持续时间长,强度大且伴随中到大阵雨;南部有雅安、乐山和宜宾三个雷暴源地,源地生成的强对流云团通常3~6 h影响成都区域;影响成都管制区的系统性强对流天气移动路径主要分为自西南向东北、自东南向西北、自西北向东南三类;该动态通行能力评估模型有助于优化流量控制措施并提升复杂天气下的运行效率,可为管制部门提供科学决策支持。

     

    Abstract: Based on the weather data and aviation operation data of Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport and Chengd Tianfu International Airport from 2022 to 2023, the weather types and delay rates of the two airports were statistically analyzed. The results show that the strong convective weather types in Chengdu control area are mainly thermal and systematic. The strong thermal convection forms isolated and discontinuous cloud clusters with scattered and transient characteristics. Most of them are thunderstorms with small showers and occasional short-term gales, which have limited impact on flight operations. The strong convective system is driven by small and medium-scale systems such as the southwest vortex and shear line. It has a long duration, high intensity and accompanied by moderate to heavy showers. In the south, there are three thunderstorm sources in Ya 'an, Leshan and Yibin, and the strong convective cloud cluster generated by the source usually affects Chengdu area for 3~6 h. The moving paths of systematic severe convective weather affecting the Chengdu control area are mainly divided into three categories: from southwest to northeast, from southeast to northwest, and from northwest to southeast.

     

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