基于迁移学习的天府机场低能见度预报模型

Low Visibility Weather Forecasting Model for Tianfu International Airport Based on Transfer Learning

  • 摘要: 选取距天府机场50 km的成都双流机场资料和欧洲中心ERA5再分析资料,基于随机森林算法构建天府机场低能见度识别模型,运用TrAdaBoost算法对模型进行改进,利用欧洲细网格预报数据进行效果验证。结果表明:通过TrAdaBoost算法改进的预报模型F2评分提升40%以上,达到0.42;M指数、6 h变压、2 m露点温度差、700 hPa相对湿度、3h变温是影响模型预报性能的重要因子,上述物理量在低能见度时段的平均值与冬半年(10月—次年3月)平均值存在显著差异,反映了低能见度天气对应的物理量特征,具有一定的统计意义;TrAdaBoost算法的引入为基于小样本数据集构建预报模型提供了解决思路,在预报业务中有一定的应用前景。

     

    Abstract: Utilizing Meteorological data from Chengdu Shuangliu Airport (located 50 km from Tianfu Airport) and ERA5 reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the low visibility forecasting model for Tianfu Airport is developed based on the random forest algorithm. The TrAdaBoost algorithm was used to improve the model, and the European fine grid forecast data was used to verify the effect. The research findings reveal that the model developed with the TrAdaBoost algorithm demonstrates a notable improvement of over 40% in the F2 score, achieving a score of 0.42, surpassing other methods. Key physical characteristic factors influencing the model performance include the M index, 6-hour pressure change, 2-meter dew point temperature difference, 700 hPa relative humidity, and 3-hour temperature change. Further analysis shows significant differences in the average values of these physical parameters between low visibility periods and the winter half-year (October-March of the next year), highlighting the distinctive characteristics of these factors during low-visibility weather and their statistical significance. More importantly, the model provides a solution for building forecasting models with small sample datasets and demonstrates promising applications in meteorological forecasting.

     

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