龙泉山“观日出”预报制作与模型建立研究

Research on the Forecasting and Model Establishment of “Sunrise View” at Longquan Mountain

  • 摘要: 基于2022年12月—2023年11月成都市龙泉驿区国家气象站日出实景观测资料及云量、能见度、日照等气象数据,将日出情况划分为皓日当空、云中观日和云层挡日三个等级,再运用相关分析方法确定影响日出的主要气象要素及其对应权重,建立了日出指数的预报模型。结果表明:影响日出的主要气象要素为总云量、低云量和水平能见度,且影响程度存在季节差异,须对因子权重作相应调整;预报模型在实际应用中表现出较高的预报准确率,预报结果和实况指数之间的相关系数为0.835,通过0.01水平的显著性检验。

     

    Abstract: Based on observational data of sunrise and meteorological data, such as cloud cover, visibility, and sunshine duration collected from the National Meteorological Station in Longquanyi District of Chengdu from December 2022 to November 2023, the sunrise conditions were divided into three levels: the sky on the bright day, the sun in the cloud and the cloud blocking day. Through correlation analysis, the main meteorological factors influencing sunrise visibility and their corresponding weights are identified, and the prediction model of sunrise index is established. The results show that the main meteorological factors affecting sunrise are total cloud cover, low cloud cover and horizontal visibility, and there are seasonal differences in the degree of influence, so the factor weights must be adjusted accordingly. The prediction model shows high prediction accuracy in practical application. The correlation coefficient between the prediction results and the actual index is 0.835, which is statistically significant at the 0.01 level.

     

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