基于智能网格的本地化森林火险气象预报模型

Intelligent Grid-Based Localized Forest Fire Weather Forecast Model

  • 摘要: 基于宜宾市1990—2020年353个地面气象站资料,利用3种订正方法对智能网格产品进行本地化订正,并以此为基础建立本地化森林火险气象预报模型。结果表明:(1)智能网格气温预报经区间分类处理后,超出历史极限的预报值会得到有效订正,改善幅度在1 ℃以内,偏差减小0.1~0.4 ℃;经实况外推订正后,误差范围缩小1~2 ℃左右,相关系数提升5%左右,均方根误差减小0.2~1.5 ℃。(2)智能网格降水预报经消空外推订正后,可消除弱降水空报。(3)模型能精细到1 km×1 km的网格预报森林火险发生可能性及火势蔓延趋势,能区分不同时刻火险气象等级差异,识别一天之中的高火险时段,24 h降水预报则可科学指导灭火作业。(4)经历史个例验证,模型具有较为超前的火险预警能力,能够帮助相关部门制定更为科学合理的防火措施。

     

    Abstract: Based on meteorological data from 353 ground stations in Yibin City from 1990 to 2020, three correction methods were applied to localize the intelligent grid forecast products, and a localized forest fire weather prediction model was established. The results show that: (1) After interval classification processing, the intelligent grid temperature forecasts with values exceeding historical extremes were effectively corrected, with improvements within 1 ℃ and a bias reduction of 0.1~0.4 ℃. After extrapolation correction using observed data, the error range decreased by approximately 1~2 ℃, the correlation coefficient increased by 5%, and the root-mean-square error decreased by approximately 0.2~1.5 ℃. (2) For the intelligent grid precipitation forecasts, false alarms of weak rainfall were eliminated after extrapolation correction combined with false alarm suppression. (3) The model can provide 1 km × 1 km grid-based forecasts of forest fire risk probability and fire spread trends. It distinguishes variations in fire danger levels at different times and identifies high-risk periods within a day. Additionally, the 24-hour precipitation forecasts offer scientific guidance for firefighting operations. (4) Historical case validation demonstrates that the model exhibits advanced fire risk early warning capabilities, assisting relevant authorities in formulating more scientific and rational fire prevention measures.

     

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