基于CMA-MESO模式的四川降水事件预报效果评估

Evaluation of the Precipitation Events Forecasts in Sichuan Based on CMA-MESO Model

  • 摘要: 利用2022年汛期四川省地面观测站逐时和逐日降水量观测数据,检验分析以CMA-MESO_3KM为主的多个业务模式在四川不同地区的预报偏差。结果表明:(1)CMA-MESO_3KM模式降水落区预报较其他模式预报更为准确,但降水量预报偏多,降水范围偏广;(2)从不同起报时次对同一时段的预报结果来看,起报时次越临近的降水预报性能越高,反映了CMA-MESO_3KM模式快速更新的优势;(3)CMA-MESO_3KM模式在降水频率日变化上最为接近实况,但在边坡区域与四川盆地后半夜的降水频率预报相较于实况偏高。

     

    Abstract: Using hourly and daily precipitation observation data from surface observation stations in Sichuan Province during the 2022 flood season, multiple operational models, chiefly CMA-MESO_3KM, are evaluated for their forecast biases in various Sichuan regions. The results indicate: (1) The CMA-MESO_3KM model provided more accurate precipitation location forecasts compared to other models, but it overestimated precipitation amounts and coverage areas. (2) Comparing forecasts from different initialization times for the same period, forecast accuracy increased with shorter lead times, reflecting the advantage of rapid updates in the CMA-MESO_3KM model. (3) The CMA-MESO_3KM model was the closest to the actual situation in the diurnal variation of precipitation frequency, but the precipitation frequency forecast in the slope area and the latter half of the night in the Sichuan Basin was higher than the actual situation.

     

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