云南主要航路飞机积冰特征分析及预报方法评估

Analysis of Aircraft Icing Characteristics and Evaluation of Forecasting Methods along Major Flight Routes in Yunnan

  • 摘要: 利用2017—2022年飞机积冰资料,在分析云南主要航线飞机积冰时空分布特征的基础上,评估了不同积冰预报算法在云南空域的适用性。结果表明:(1)云南主要航路飞机积冰主要发生在12月—次年2月和4月,夏季积冰事件较少,冬季发生积冰事件最多。(2)3300~9500 m高度飞机均出现积冰事件,其中,7000~8000 m高度范围内出现的飞机积冰事件最多,严重积冰事件大多出现在7000~8000 m高度。(3)积冰事件主要发生的温度、相对湿度、垂直速度以及云中液态水含量区间分别为−15~−5 ℃、90%~100%、−0.05~0.05 m/s以及0~0.05 g/kg。(4)在云南主要航路飞机积冰预报准确率、强度预报准确率,以及漏报率等方面,基于模糊逻辑预报诊断方法发展起来的积冰潜势预测指数(Simplified Forecast Icing Potential,SFIP)表现较好,优于传统的国际民航组织(ICAO)推荐的经典积冰指数(IC)。(5)经过权重优化,改进后的SFIP指数(ISFIP)对云南主要航线飞机积冰预报准确率、强度预报准确率均进一步提升,漏报率有所降低。

     

    Abstract: Based on the aircraft icing data of Yunnan Province from 2017 to 2022, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of aircraft icing along major flight routes and the applicability of different aircraft icing forecasting algorithms in Yunnan airspace were analyzed. The results show that: (1) Aircraft icing along major air routes in Yunnan mainly occurred from December to February and April of the following year, with fewer events in summer and the most in winter. (2) Aircraft icing events occurred at the altitude from 3300 to 9500 m. The aircraft icing events occurred most frequently at the altitude between 7000 and 8000 m, and severe icing events were also most frequent within this altitude range. (3) Aircraft icing mainly occurred within the temperature range of −15~−5℃, relative humidity of 90%~100%, vertical velocity of −0.05~0.05 m/s and cloud liquid water content of 0~0.05 g/kg. (4) The Simplified Forecast Icing Potential (SFIP), developed based on the fuzzy logic forecast diagnosis method, performed better than the classical icing index (IC) recommended by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in terms of forecasting accuracy, intensity prediction accuracy, and missed detection rate for aircraft icing along major routes in Yunnan. (5) After weight optimization, the improved SFIP index (ISFIP) further enhanced the accuracy of aircraft icing forecast and intensity forecast on the main routes in Yunnan, while reducing the missed detection rate.

     

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