基于K-Means的贵州春季冰雹过程分型研究

Research on the Classification of Spring Hail Processes in Guizhou Based on K-Means

  • 摘要: 基于2011—2020年贵州省人工观测冰雹资料和ERA5再分析资料,在分析贵州春季冰雹过程时空变化特征的基础上,利用K-Means聚类分析方法对冰雹过程进行分型,研究了不同类型冰雹过程对应的天气条件。结果表明:(1)春季(3—5月)是贵州地区冰雹发生的主要时段(占比高达89.3%),春季冰雹频次总体呈西多东少、南多北少的空间分布,随着站点冰雹频次的增加,其空间分布逐渐向西南方向收缩。(2)春季冰雹过程以局地小范围为主(≤5站次占比62.9%),随着冰雹过程站次数的增加,冰雹过程发生的频次迅速减少,其中,较大范围的冰雹过程易出现在早春,较小范围的冰雹过程易出现在晚春。(3)贵州春季冰雹过程的K-Means聚类分型结果为6类,其中Ⅱ(东-西纬向中东部型)、Ⅳ(东-西纬向中西部型)和Ⅴ型(西北北-东南南经向西部型)为主要路径型(占比达64.1%);6类冰雹过程均集中发生在17:00—20:00(北京时,下同),频次占比达53.5%,日变化特征呈典型的双峰结构,其最大值和次大值分别出现在17:00—18:00和19:00—20:00。(4)冰雹过程发生前(14:00—18:00),6类关键区的热力不稳定层结均超前于动力不稳定的发展,为冰雹过程的发生提供了充足的水汽和强烈的上升气流;同时,对流层中层伴随着0 ℃高度层(约600 hPa)以上的云水含量大值区向上发展,该云团可发展至500 hPa附近,也为冰粒的形成和增长提供了物质条件。

     

    Abstract: Based on the manual observation hail data of Guizhou Province and ERA5 reanalysis data from 2011 to 2020, the spatiotemporal characteristics of spring hail processes in Guizhou were analyzed. Using the K-Means clustering method, hail processes were classified, and the corresponding weather conditions for different types of hail events were investigated. The results show that: (1) Spring (March to May) is the main period of hail occurrence in Guizhou (accounting for 89.3 % of cases). The spatial distribution of spring hail frequency generally shows higher values in the west and south, and lower values in the east and north. As the hail frequency increases, the spatial distribution gradually contracts toward the southwest. (2) The spring hail processes are mainly in a small local area (≤5 stations accounted for 62.9%). With the increase in the number of hail process stations, the frequency of hail process decreases rapidly. Among them, the large-scale hail processes are more likely to occur in early spring, and the small-scale hail processes are easy to appear in late spring. (3) The K-Means clustering results of spring hail processes in Guizhou are classified into 6 types, and Type II (east-west latitudinal to east-central type), Type IV (east-west latitudinal to west-central type) and Type V (north-northwest-south-southeast longitude to west type) are the main path types (accounting for 64.1%). All six types of hail processes predominantly occur between 17:00 and 20:00 (Beijing Time, same below), accounting for 53.5% of cases. The diurnal variation characteristics shows a typical bimodal structure, with the maximum and sub-maximum values appearing from 17:00 to 18:00 and from 19:00 to 20:00, respectively. (4) Before the hail processes (14:00—18:00), the thermal unstable stratification of the six key areas develops earlier than the dynamic instability, providing sufficient water vapor and strong updraft for hail formation. At the same time, the cloud water content in the middle troposphere increases above the 0°C level (about 600 hPa), and the cloud clusters can develop upward to around 500 hPa, providing material conditions for the formation and growth of ice particles.

     

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