重庆2023年秋季降水异常偏多成因分析

Analysis of the Causes of Abnormally High Precipitation in Chongqing during Autumn 2023

  • 摘要: 2023年秋季重庆降水量为1961年以来历史同期第四多,华西秋雨监测期内(下称秋雨期)同期最多。本文利用气象站实测和ERA5再分析等资料,分析了造成秋季降水异常的主要原因。结果表明:秋季和秋雨期500 hPa环流场上,在贝加尔湖阻塞高压和中纬度低值波动系统的影响下,重庆地区受北脊南槽的环流控制,不断有西风带短波槽等低值系统影响,同时,西太平洋副热带高压(下称西太副高)持续偏强偏大偏西偏北,其外围不断有强盛的水汽输送至重庆地区;异常强大的暖湿气流与频繁的西风带短波槽等低值系统结合,使重庆上空水汽异常丰沛且辐合维持时间长,从而造成该地区暴雨频发、降水异常偏多;重庆秋季降水对初夏开始的ENSO暖事件并不敏感,其自身显著增多的气候变率贡献超过了ENSO暖事件的影响;此外,印度洋海温的持续偏暖可能是西太副高持续偏强、偏西的重要外强迫因子,其通过影响西太副高间接导致了重庆秋季降水的异常偏多。

     

    Abstract: In the autumn of 2023, Chongqing recorded its fourth highest precipitation total for the same period since 1961, and the highest during the monitoring period of the West China Autumn Rain (hereafter referred to as “autumn rain”). Using observational data from meteorological stations and ERA5 reanalysis data, the main reasons for the abnormal precipitation in autumn were analyzed. The results indicate that during both the autumn and autumn rain periods, the 500 hPa circulation pattern was characterized by a blocking high over Lake Baikal and mid-latitude low-pressure wave systems. Consequently, the Chongqing area was under a pattern of a ridge to the north and a trough to the south, with frequent influences from short-wave troughs and other low-value systems in the westerlies. At the same time, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) was persistently more intense, extensive, and displaced further westward and northward than usual, continuously transporting abundant moisture to the Chongqing region through its periphery. The combination of the anomalously strong warm, moist airflow and frequent low-value systems such as westerly short-wave troughs led to exceptionally abundant moisture and prolonged convergence over Chongqing, resulting in frequent rainstorms and abnormal precipitation. The autumn precipitation in Chongqing showed limited sensitivity to the ENSO warm event starting in early summer, with its increased climate variability playing a more dominant role than the influence of the ENSO warm event. Furthermore, the continuously warm sea surface temperatures of the Indian Ocean may have served as an important external forcing factor, which indirectly led to the abnormal increase of autumn precipitation in Chongqing by affecting the WPSH.

     

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