分布式水文模型在高原山地流域的研究与应用进展

Research and Application Progress of Distributed Hydrological Models in Plateau Mountainous Basins

  • 摘要: 高原山地流域受到垂直气候梯度与复杂下垫面条件的协同调控,其水文过程呈现显著的时空异质性特征,导致传统水文模型难以精准模拟和预测。分布式水文模型兼具网格空间离散化与产汇流过程物理机制约束等优势,可模拟气象-下垫面复杂互馈过程所驱动的水文过程,已在高原山地流域的径流过程等水文模拟、预报中得到广泛应用。本文首先综述了分布式水文模型在高原山地流域的应用进展:在模型结构层面,实现了冻土水热耦合、冰川动力过程等模块的改进与多过程集成;融合了多源遥感、再分析等网格产品与地面观测,显著提升了输入数据的精度和时空覆盖度;发展了参数区域化函数或参数转移函数及遥感观测约束的率定技术,由此提升缺资料高原山地流域的分布式水文模拟。其次,本文梳理了分布式水文模型在高原山地流域降雨径流模拟、冰川融雪过程模拟、土壤侵蚀评估及气候/土地利用的水文响应中的关键成果。同时发现,当前高原山地流域分布式水文模拟仍面临冰川动力学机制刻画不足、冻土-生态-水文耦合薄弱及高寒区参数不确定性较大等诸多挑战。最后,论文倡议后续研究需深化水-热-碳地表协同过程机理、发展机器学习辅助或基于下垫面物理特性的参数网格化自适应技术、构建多模型-多数据集成框架,以进一步提升高原山地流域复杂水文过程的模拟预报精度与时效性,为高原生态屏障功能维护与水安全战略提供科技支撑。

     

    Abstract: Hydrological processes in plateau mountainous basins are governed by steep vertical climatic gradients and complex topography, resulting in pronounced heterogeneity in time and space that challenges the application of traditional hydrological models. Distributed hydrological models, leveraging their strengths in grid-based spatial discretization and physically based runoff generation mechanisms, are capable of quantitatively simulating land–atmosphere interactions and hydrological responses. Consequently, they are widely employed for hydrological modeling and forecasting, particularly streamflow, in these plateau mountainous basins. This paper reviews the progress in the application of distributed hydrological models to plateau mountainous basins. At the model structure level, the improvement and multi-process integration of modules such as permafrost hydrothermal coupling and glacier dynamic processes are realized. The grid products such as multi-source remote sensing and reanalysis are integrated with ground observation, which significantly improves the accuracy and spatial-temporal coverage of input data. Parameter determination and calibration strategies, including parameter regionalization functions (parameter transfer functions) and remote sensing-constrained calibration techniques are developed to improve the distributed hydrological simulation in data-scarce or ungauged basins. Furthermore, this paper reviews the key achievements of distributed hydrological models in simulating rainfall–runoff processes, glacier-snowmelt dynamics, soil erosion assessment, and hydrological responses to climate and land-use changes. Despite solid progress, current research reveals persistent challenges in hydrological modeling for plateau mountainous basins, such as inadequate representation of glacier dynamics, limited coupling of permafrost-vegetation-hydrology processes, and parameter uncertainty in high-elevation cold regions. Future research should advance the mechanistic understanding of coupled water–energy–carbon cycles, develop machine learning-assisted (or physically based) self-adaptive grid-based parameterization schemes, and establish integrated multi-model and multi-source data frameworks. These advancements are crucial for further improving the predictive capability, accuracy, and reliability of distributed hydrological models in complex plateau mountain environments, thereby underpinning ecological security and sustainable water resource management strategies.

     

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