2001—2023年西藏林芝苹果花期霜冻变化及气候风险

Frost Changes and Climate Risk of Apple Flowering Period in Nyingchi of Xizang from 2001 to 2023

  • 摘要: 利用西藏林芝气象站1991—2023年逐日最低气温资料和2001—2023年苹果花期物候观测数据,以日最低气温为霜冻指标,采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall检验等方法,分析近23 a林芝苹果花期晚霜冻变化特征和气候风险指数。结果表明:(1)近33 a林芝各等级晚霜冻日期均表现为提早趋势,提早率为2.88~5.76 d/10 a,以中度晚霜冻日期提早最多,特别是近23 a提早的更明显。轻霜冻未发生突变,中、重霜冻突变点分别出现在2020年、2004年和2011年。(2)近23 a林芝苹果花期平均每10 a显著推迟5.15~9.39 d,以始花期最明显;开花始期、盛期和末期分别在2014年、2016年和2010年发生了由偏早转为偏晚的突变。(3)苹果花期轻度、中度晚霜冻发生频率分别为56.5%和30.4%,从未出现过重度晚霜冻;苹果花期晚霜冻气候风险指数为1.17,明显高于中国渤海湾、黄土高原陕州区和新疆阿克苏等地。总之,林芝晚霜冻终日提早、苹果花期显著推迟,以及花期遭受晚霜冻的气候风险明显降低。

     

    Abstract: Based on the daily minimum temperature data from 1991 to 2023 and the observation data of apple flowering period from 2001 to 2023 in Nyingchi meteorological station of Xizang, the daily minimum temperature was used as the frost index, and the linear tendency estimation and Mann-Kendall test were used to analyze the variation characteristics and climate risk index of late frost in Nyingchi during apple flowering period in recent 23 years (2001—2023). The results showed that: (1) In the past 33 years, the late frost date of each grade in Nyingchi showed an advancing trend, with a rate of 2.88~5.76 days per decade. The date of moderate late frost was the most early, especially in the past 23 years. There was no mutation for light frost, and the mutation time for medium and heavy frost appeared in 2020, 2004 and 2011, respectively. (2) In the past 23 year, the flowering period of apple in Nyingchi showed a significant delay trend, with a rate of 5.15~9.39 days per decade, which was most obvious at the beginning of the flowering period. The beginning, bloom and end date of the flowering period underwent a mutation from early to late in 2014, 2016 and 2010, respectively. (3) The frequency of light and moderate late frost during apple flowering period were 56.5% and 30.4% respectively, and no severe late frost was encountered. The climate risk index of late frost during apple flowering period was 1.17, which was significantly higher than that in Bohai Bay, Shaanzhou District of Loess Plateau, and Aksu of Xinjiang. In conclusion, the end date of late frost in Nyingchi tended to be earlier, the flowering period of apple delayed significantly, and the climate risk of late frost in flowering period obviously reduced.

     

/

返回文章
返回