“24.6”川藏铁路甘孜段连续强降水过程诊断分析

Diagnostic Analysis of the “24.6” Extreme Continuous Heavy Precipitation Event in the Ganzi Section of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway

  • 摘要: 基于多源观测数据和ERA5再分析资料,对2024年6月22日20时—28日20时川藏铁路甘孜段极端连续强降水过程进行了诊断分析。结果表明:(1)连续性强降水发生期间,副高异常偏西偏强,新疆高脊异常偏强,500 hPa副高西侧偏南气流与高压脊前偏北气流在川藏铁路沿线形成稳定的切变辐合,同时,200 hPa为西风急流右侧辐散区和南亚高压东北侧分流区,“低层辐合、高层辐散”的配置有利于垂直上升运动发展,进而有利于降水产生和持续。(2)孟加拉湾与副高外围形成了一支“S”形水汽输送通道,为持续降水输送充沛水汽,大气总水汽含量异常偏高,有一定极端性,低层水汽通量辐合在午后至夜间增强,与强降水出现时间的对应关系较好。(3)CAPE值和温度的日变化对对流活动有显著影响,午后到傍晚CAPE值增大,对流发展旺盛;辐合流场与对流云系生消发展密切相关,降水云系表现为层状云和对流云并存的积层混合云系回波,其组合反射率因子达到55 dBZ,50 dBZ回波发展高度超过10 km,30 dBZ回波发展高度接近15 km。对流云团沿600 hPa和500 hPa切变辐合发展,Vow参数的强弱变化可预示对流发展或减弱,具有一定的指示意义。

     

    Abstract: Based on tmulti-source observation data and ERA5 reanalysis data, the extreme continuous heavy precipitation process in Ganzi section of Sichuan-Tibet Railway from 20:00 on June 22, 2024 to 20:00 on June 28, 2024 was diagnosed and analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) During the continuous heavy precipitation, the subtropical high was anomalously westward and stronger, the high ridge in Xinjiang, The southward airflow on the west side of the subtropical high at 500 hPa and the northerly airflow ahead of the high pressure ridge formed a stable shear convergence along the Sichuan-Tibet Railway. At the same time, 200 hPa was the divergence area on the right side of the westerly jet and the diversion area on the northeast side of the South Asian high. The configuration of “low-level convergence and high-level divergence” was conducive to the development of vertical upward movement, which was conducive to the generation and persistence of precipitation. (2) An S-shaped water vapor transport channel developed between the Bay of Bengal and the periphery of the subtropical high, which transported abundant water vapor for continuous precipitation. The total water vapor content reached abnormally high levels with notable extremity. The convergence of water vapor flux in the lower layer increased from afternoon to night, which had a good correspondence with the occurrence time of heavy precipitation. (3) The diurnal variation of CAPE value and temperature had a significant influence on convection activity. The CAPE value increased from afternoon to evening, the convergence field was closely related to the development of convective cloud system, The precipitation cloud system was a mixed echo of stratiform cloud and convective cloud, and its combined reflectivity factor reached 55 dBZ, and the development height of 50 dBz echo exceeded 10 km and 30 dBz was close to 15 km. The convective cloud cluster developed along the shear convergence of600 hPa and 500 hPa, and the enhancement or weakening of Vow parameters would predict the development and weakening of convection, which had certain indicative significance.

     

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