广西西南部一次极端暴雨过程成因分析

Cause Analysis of an Extreme Rainstorm in Southwest Guangxi

  • 摘要: 利用多源气象观测资料和NECP再分析资料,对2020年5月17日发生在广西西南部一次极端暴雨过程进行分析。结果表明:此次极端暴雨是在高空槽、低层切变线和锋面等大尺度系统共同影响下产生,前期地面暖低压的发展提供了充足的不稳定能量条件,西南季风的加强将孟加拉湾和南海北部的水汽源源不断输送到广西;地面辐合线是此次极端暴雨过程的重要触发和维持机制,而桂西南特殊地形对于辐合线的形成和移动具有重要作用;对流回波具有明显的后向传播特征,并在移动过程中形成“列车效应”,同时此次降水回波质心较低且暖云层深厚,具有非常高的降水效率,是产生极端降水的直接原因;低涡切变线与夜间边界层急流加强均有利于强降水的发展,使边界层始终维持强的水汽辐合和抬升条件,同时低层暖湿平流的输送也有利于对流不稳定的维持,为极端暴雨的形成提供了保障。

     

    Abstract: Using multi-source meteorological observation data and NECP reanalysis data, an extreme rainstorm process in southwest Guangxi on May 17, 2020 was analyzed, The results show that the extreme rainstorm was produced by the joint influence of large-scale systems such as the high trough, the low-level shear line and the front. The development of the warm and low pressure on the ground in the early stage provided sufficient unstable energy conditions, and the strengthening of the southwest monsoon continuously transported water vapor from the Bay of Bengal and the northern South China Sea to Guangxi. The surface convergence line was an important trigger and maintenance mechanism of the extreme rainstorm process, and the special terrain in southwest Guangxi played an important role in the formation and movement of the convergence line. The convective echo had obvious backward propagation characteristics and formed a “train effect” during its movement. At the same time, the centroid of the precipitation echo was low and the warm cloud layer was deep, which had a very high precipitation efficiency and was the direct cause of extreme precipitation. The strengthening of vortex shear line and nocturnal boundary layer jet provided favorable conditions for the development of heavy rainfall, making the boundary layer always maintain strong water vapor convergence and lifting conditions. Meanwhile, the transport of warm and humid advection in the lower layer was also conducive to the maintenance of convective instability, providing a guarantee for the formation of extreme rainstorm.

     

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