Abstract:
Using high-altitude and ground observation data from 2010 to 2020, and based on the flow pattern identification and batching methods, a conceptual model of short-term heavy precipitation in the Qujiang River Basin was established. The quantitative analysis was conducted on physical characteristics such as uplift conditions, water vapor conditions, and unstable conditions. The results show that: (1) The short-term heavy precipitation in the Qujiang River Basin can be divided into 3 categories and 6 types according to the circulation pattern, namely, the trough at the edge of the subtropical anticyclone, the high-level trough, and the subtropical anticyclone control category. The trough at the edge of the subtropical anticyclone can be divided into vortex-shear type, low-level jet type and mixed type. The high-level trough is divided into cold front-trough type and short wave trough type. The subtropical anticyclone control category only has high-level cold advection types. (2) The trough at the edge of the subtropical anticyclone mainly occurred from June to September, accounting for 64.5% of the total number of cases. The high-level trough type was the main category of short-term heavy precipitation from March to May and from October to November. The subtropical anticyclone control category mainly appeared in August, accounting for only 1.7%. (3) The short-term strong precipitation of the trough at the edge of the subtropical anticyclone has the characteristics of large range, long duration, and strong rainfall. The cumulative precipitation of short-term strong precipitation processes in high-level trough type is smaller than that in the trough at the edge of the subtropical anticyclone type. The range of short-term heavy rainfall controlled by subtropical anticyclone is generally not large, with strong locality and usually accompanied by convective weather such as lightning and strong winds. (4) The thresholds of various types of mesoscale physical quantities of short-term heavy rainfall in Qujiang River Basin have certain reference value for improving the forecast level of regional heavy rainfall.