精细化网格预报产品在广元地区的适用性检验

Suitability Test of Refined Grid Forecasting Products in Guangyuan Area

  • 摘要: 基于广元地区自动气象站观测资料,采用最邻近法、线性插值、反距离权重3种插值方法,对5 km格点气象要素预报产品(国家格点指导预报SCMOC、省级订正报SPCC和省级指导报SPCO)和欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)精细化网格预报产品在广元地区的适用性进行了检验。结果表明:对于海拔0~1000 m站点,晴雨预报SPCC最优,中到大雨量级预报EC模式最优,暴雨量级预报SPCC最优,大暴雨及以上量级预报SCMOC和EC模式最优;对于海拔1000 m以上站点,晴雨预报SPCC和SCMOC最优,中到大雨量级预报EC模式最优,暴雨及以上量级预报SCMOC和SPCC最优;海拔0~1000 m高度的晴雨预报准确率介于62%~68%之间,海拔超过1000 m高度的命中率低于海拔0~1000 m高度。整体来看,各类产品的日最低气温预报均好于日最高气温,日最高气温预报较实况均偏低,其中SPCO和SPCC预报效果优于EC模式和SCMOC,尤其是EC模式偏低最多,参考性相对较差。

     

    Abstract: Based on the observation data of automatic weather stations in Guangyuan, the refined grid data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), 5 km grid meteorological element forecasting products (national grid guidance and forecasting SCMOC, provincial correction SPCC and provincial guidance SPCO), three interpolation methods, such as nearest neighbor method, linear interpolation and inverse distance weight, were used to test the applicability of precipitation and temperature products in Guangyuan area. The results show that for the stations at an altitude of 0~1000 m, the SPCC is the best for sunny and rainy forecast, the EC model is the best for medium to heavy rain forecast, the SPCC is the best for heavy rain forecast, and the SCMOC and EC models are the best for the forecast of heavy rain and above. For stations at an altitude above 1000 m, SPCC and SCMOC are the best for sunny and rainy forecast, EC model is the best for medium to heavy rain forecast, SCMOC and SPCC are the best for rthe forecast of rainstorm and above. The accuracy of sunny and rainy forecast at an altitude of 0~1000 m is between 62% and 68%, and the hit rate at an altitude of above 1000 m is lower than that at an altitude of 0~1000 m. On the whole, the daily minimum temperature forecast of all kinds of products is better than the daily maximum temperature forecast, and the daily maximum temperature forecast is lower than the actual situation. Among them, the forecast effect of SPCO and SPCC is better than that of EC model and SCMOC, especially the EC model is the most low, and the reference is relatively poor.

     

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