四川盆地突发性暴雨危险度研究

Study on the Danger Degree of Abrupt Heavy Rainfall in Sichuan Basin

  • 摘要: 本文基于地面观测数据与CMORPH卫星反演产品融合得到的逐时降水资料,筛选出2017—2021年四川盆地突发性暴雨过程,利用突发性暴雨发生频率、平均过程降雨量、平均持续时间和最大小时降雨量表征突发性暴雨危险程度,并以各因子的灰色关联度作为权重值构建突发性暴雨危险度模型。结果表明:(1)四川盆地突发性暴雨主要集中在5—9月,占总突发性暴雨发生次数的90%以上;(2)突发性暴雨起始时间主要集中在15时—次日06时,占70%以上,在18—21时达到峰值;(3)突发性暴雨在四川盆地都有发生,但频次不高,大多集中分布在盆地西南部(雅安)和北部(绵阳);(4)川北地区的突发性暴雨具有发生频次少、过程持续时间长、平均过程降雨量较大的特征,而西南地区的突发性暴雨则有发生频次高、过程持续时间短、平均过程降雨量较小的特征;(5)7、8月四川盆地突发性暴雨高危险度区域分布范围广,以西北、西南以及中部地区为主,5、6、9月较高危险度区域主要分布在重庆东南部和四川盆地北部。

     

    Abstract: Based on the hourly precipitation data from 2017 to 2021 to calculate and filter out the events of the abrupt heavy rainfall. The occurrence frequency, average process rainfall, average duration and maximum hourly rainfall of the abrupt heavy rainfall were selected to characterize the danger degree of the abrupt heavy rainfall. The danger degree model of the abrupt heavy rainfall was constructed by calculating the grey correlation degree of each factor as the weight value. The result shows that: (1) The abrupt heavy rainfall in Sichuan Basin mainly occurred from May to September, accounting for more than 90% of the total frequency. (2) The start time of the abrupt heavy rainfall was mainly concentrated from 15:00 to 6:00 of the next day, accounting for more than 70%, reaching the peak during the period from 18:00 to 21:00. (3) The abrupt heavy rainfall occurred in all range of Sichuan Basin, but the frequency was not high, and the high frequency areas were mainly distributed in Ya’an and Mianyang. (4) In northern Sichuan Basin, the abrupt heavy rainfall had the characteristics of low frequency, long duration and large average process rainfall, while in southwestern Sichuan Basin, the abrupt heavy rainfall had the characteristics of high frequency, short duration and low average process rainfall. (5) In July and August, the high-risk areas of abrupt rainfall in Sichuan Basin were widely distributed, mainly in the northwest, southwest and central regions. In May, June and September, the high-risk areas were mainly distributed in the southeast of Chongqing and the north of Sichuan Basin.

     

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