改进WRF模式静态数据对复杂地形下准静止锋雾模拟的影响

Effect of Refined WRF Static Data on Simulation of Quasi-stationary Front Frontal Fog

  • 摘要: 本文将WRF模式静态数据升级为最新的地形数据和土地覆被类型数据,以ERA-Interim资料作为初始场和边界场,以贵州区域84个国家站能见度小时整点观测作为实况,通过数值模式对比试验,研究改进模式静态数据对准静止锋雾模拟的影响。结果表明:改进后的地形数据使贵州地区52.37%站点的绝对海拔偏差下降,新的土地覆被类型数据能够更加精确地描述贵州区域土地覆被的空间分布。单独改进土地覆被类型数据对模拟结果无改善作用,单独改进地形数据可改善大部分个例预报结果,地形数据改善效果和模拟效果改善成正比;同时更新地形数据和土地覆被类型数据,改善个例的数量和平均改善率出现小幅下降,但平均空报率的表现明显好于仅更新地形的结果。对于不同强度的准静止锋,WRF模式不仅在模拟能力上存在差异,而且静态数据的改善效果也有所不同。对于锋区维持强度较大、湿区少变的类型,静态数据改进对模拟结果多为正作用;对于锋区明显东西摆动,湿区有较大变化,尤其是近地面层RH > 95%湿区存在大幅度摆动的类型,仅改变静态数据对准静止锋雾的模拟效果改善不明显。在当前能见度观测的站点分布基础上,改进地形数据和土地覆被类型数据对贵州冬春季节准静止锋雾模拟有积极的改善作用。

     

    Abstract: The static data of WRF model is refined by latest topographic data and land cover data. The ERA-Interim data is used as the initial field and boundary field, and the hourly visibility observation of 84 national stations in Guizhou area is used as actual situation, the effect of the refined WRF static data on the simulation of quasi-stationary front frontal fog is analyzed through comparison experiments. It is indicated that the improved topographic data reduces the absolute altitude deviation of 52.37% stations in Guizhou, and the new land cover data can describe the spatial distribution of land-cover in Guizhou more accurately. The individually improved land cover data has little effect on the simulation. The individually improved topographic data improves most of the simulated results, and the topographic data improvement effect is proportional to the simulation improvement effect. Refining the topographic data and land cover data at the same time, the number of improvement cases and the average improvement rate decreases slightly, but the average false alarm ratio performs significantly better than that of only refining the terrain. For different types of quasi-stationary fronts, the WRF model not only has different simulation capabilities, but also has different improvement effects on static data. The refined static data has a mostly positive effect on the simulation results to quasi-stationary fronts when the front area maintains strong strength and wet area changes little. When the front area oscillates east-west, and the wet area has great changes, especially in the wet area with RH > 95% in the surface layer, refined static data only has little positive effect on the simulation results to the quasi-stationary fronts. Based on the current distribution of visibility observation stations, improved topographic data and land cover data can positively improve the quasi-stationary front frontal fog simulation in Guizhou.

     

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