多尺度地形背景下东亚夏季风推进过程与我国洪涝和滑坡泥石流灾害时空特征

Advancement Process of East Asian Summer Monsoon and the Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Flood,Landslide and Debris Flow Disasters under Multi-scale Terrain in China

  • 摘要: 基于全国气象台站逐日降水资料、中国气象地质灾害数据和NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料,通过统计分析和物理诊断,研究了东亚夏季风推进过程与我国洪涝和滑坡泥石流灾害发生过程的联系。结果表明:随着东亚夏季风的向西向北推进,偏南风水汽输送也逐渐增强并向北向西扩展,季风携带大量的暖湿水汽北上,对不同区域的降水有重要影响,我国雨带位置也随之西进北扩。并且,我国洪涝和滑坡泥石流灾害高发区与不同地形背景下季风雨带位置及东亚夏季风的推进过程密切相关,伴随夏季风的西进北扩,雨带位置的变化和降水强度和频率的增加,显著影响了复杂地形下洪涝和滑坡泥石流灾害发生的区域和概率。由此揭示了东亚季风区季风演变与不同地形下洪涝和滑坡泥石流灾害发生的大尺度时空关系,加深了对于气象与地质灾害多尺度演变特征及影响机理的认识。

     

    Abstract: Based on the daily precipitation data of meteorological stations, meteorological and geological disaster data, and the NCEP/NCAR monthly mean reanalysis dataset from 1991 to 2020, the relationship between the advancement of the East Asian summer monsoon and the evolution of meteorological and geological disasters such as flood, landslide and debris flow in China is studied by use of the observation analysis and diagnostic research. The results show that as the East Asian summer monsoon advances westward and northward, the southward wind and water vapor transport gradually strengthens and expands northward and westward. The monsoon carries a large amount of warm and humid water vapor northward, which has an important impact on precipitation in different regions. The position of China’s rain belts also moves westward and expands northward accordingly. And the high incidence areas of flood, landslide and debris flow disasters in China are closely related to the location of rain belts under different terrain conditions and the promotion process of the East Asian summer monsoon. With the westward and northward expansion of the summer monsoon, changes of rain belts location and the increase of precipitation intensity and frequency significantly affect the occurrence area and probability of flood, landslide and debris flow disasters. It reveals the large-scale spatiotemporal relationships between the evolution of the East Asian monsoon and flood, landslide and debris flow disasters under different terrains, and deepens the understanding of the multi-scale evolution characteristics and the impact mechanisms of meteorological and geological disasters.

     

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