西藏林芝暖冬指数对冬小麦生长发育的影响

Responses of Winter Wheat Growth to Warm Winter in Nyingchi of Xizang

  • 摘要: 基于1991—2022年西藏林芝站冬季平均气温(Tm)、冬小麦生育期以及大气环流指数等数据,采用线性倾向估计、相关系数分析、Mann-Kendall等方法,分析近32 a林芝暖冬指数(IWs)变化特征及其对冬小麦生育期的影响以及成因。结果表明:(1)林芝冬季Tm以0.40 ℃/10 a的速度呈显著的升高趋势,且在21世纪初发生突变。其中,1月Tm突变时间最早(1999年),但升温率最小(0.30 ℃/10 a);12月Tm突变时间最晚(2009年),升温率最大(0.47 ℃/10 a)。(2)IWs呈显著的增加趋势,期间暖冬事件共出现10次,其中强暖冬3次,并以2000s最多。(3)林芝IWs显著增加,导致冬小麦返青期和起身期提早,且越冬期显著缩短(−2.63 d/10 a)。(4)冬季西藏高原高度场A、B指数偏大,太阳黑子指数偏低,以及西太平洋暖池面积指数和强度指数偏强,季风指数偏弱,林芝易出现暖冬现象。

     

    Abstract: Based on the data of winter average temperature (Tm) at Nyingchi station in Xizang from 1991 to 2022, the data of winter wheat growth period and atmospheric circulation index, according to the warm winter grade (GB/T 21983-2008). the variation characteristics of warm winter index (IWs) in Nyingchi in the past 32 years and its influence on the winter wheat growth period and its causes were analyzed by linear tendency estimation, correlation coefficient analysis and Mann-Kendall. The results showed that: (1) In winter, Tm increased significantly at a rate of 0.40 ℃/10a in Nyingchi, and the mutation occurred at the beginning of the 21st century. Among them, the mutation time of Tm in January was the earliest (1999), but the warming rate was the smallest (0.30 ℃/10a), the mutation time of Tm in December was the latest (2009), and the warming rate was the highest (0.47 ℃/10a). (2) The IWs increased significantly in Nyingchi, and there were 10 warm winter events, including 3 strong warm winters and the most in 2000s during the period. (3) The significant increase of IWs led to the advanced regreening stage and setting stage of winter wheat, and the overwintering period shortened significantly by a rate of −2.63 d/10a. (4) In winter, the A and B indexes of the Tibetan Plateau were larger, the sunspot index was lower, the area index and intensity index of the western Pacific warm pool were stronger, and the monsoon index was weaker, which was prone to warm winter in Nyingchi.

     

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