基于投影寻踪法的云南省暴雨灾害风险评估

Risk Assessment of Rainstorm Disaster of Yunnan Province Based on Projection Pursuit Method

  • 摘要: 利用1991—2020年云南省118个站点的逐日降水观测和云南省统计年鉴资料,基于投影寻踪法对云南省暴雨灾害风险进行风险评估和等级划分。结果表明:(1)云南省西南部的降水强度和持续程度普遍高于其他地区,降水总量多且暴雨发生频率高的区域主要在云南省东南部。(2)云南省南部边缘和西部边缘致灾因子危险等级最高,云南省西北部孕灾环境敏感性较低,昆明市和曲靖市承灾体脆弱性等级较高,而中部具有较好的防灾减灾能力。(3)云南省暴雨灾害风险的空间分布呈现由南向北逐渐递减的特征,高风险、次高风险、中风险、次低风险和低风险区分别占总面积的8.3%、14.7%、19.8%、25.5%和31.7%。

     

    Abstract: Using the daily precipitation observation data of 118 stations in Yunnan Province from 1991 to 2020 and the statistical yearbook data of Yunnan Province, the risk assessment and classification of rainstorm disaster risk in Yunnan Province are conducted based on the projection pursuit method. The results show that: (1) The precipitation intensity and duration in the southwest of Yunnan Province are generally higher than those in other regions, while the regions with more total precipitation and high frequency of rainstorm are mainly in the southeast of Yunnan Province. (2) The hazard level of hazard factors in the southern edge and western edge of Yunnan is the highest. The sensitivity of disaster pregnant environment in northwest Yunnan is relatively low. The vulnerability of the disaster-bearing bodies in Kunming and Qujing is at a high level. Central Yunnan has good disaster prevention and mitigation capability. (3) The spatial distribution of rainstorm disaster risk in Yunnan Province is gradually decreasing from south to north. High risk area, sub high risk area, medium risk area, sub low risk area and low risk area account for 8.3%, 14.7%, 19.8%, 25.5% and 31.7% respectively.

     

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