全球降水观测计划IMERG对金沙江下游极端降水反演效果评估

Evaluation of GPM IMERG Precipitation Product on Extreme Precipitation in the Lower Reaches of Jinsha River

  • 摘要: 基于中国气象局研发的三源融合降水产品,利用相关系数、平均误差、相对偏差、归一化均方根误差、命中率、误报率和关键成功率共7个评估指标,从极端降水指数精度、极端降水探测能力等方面分析全球降水计划卫星(Global Precipitation Mission,GPM)IMERG V06 Final降水产品在金沙江下游对极端降水的反演效果。结果表明:IMERG降水产品对极端降水空间分布具有一定的反演能力,在强降水区和弱降水区灵敏度均较高,但在流域大部分区域仍然倾于高估,高海拔山区高估现象更明显;IMERG对最大连续5日降水量的反演效果优于其他极端降水指数(极端日降水、最大单日降水量、强降水量和大雨日数),具有较高的相关系数、较低的相对偏差以及较低的归一化均方根误差;IMERG对极端降水事件探测潜力具有较大的季节差异和地域差异,夏季捕捉能力比其他季节强,低海拔区捕捉能力比高海拔区强,在夏季或低海拔区均表现出更高的命中率和关键成功率以及更低的误报率。

     

    Abstract: Based on the Three-Source Precipitation Product developed by China Meteorological Administration, the inversion ability of IMERG V06 Final precipitation product of Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) on extreme precipitation in the lower reaches of the Jinsha River was analyzed from the aspects of the accuracy evaluation of extreme precipitation indices and the detection ability of extreme precipitation by using seven evaluation indicators such as correlation coefficient, relative deviation, normalized root mean square error, hit rate, false alarm rate and critical success rate. Results show that the IMERG precipitation product can retrieve the spatial distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation, and the effect is good in strong and weak rainfall areas. In most regions of the basin, IMERG precipitation product overestimates the extreme precipitation indices, which is more obvious in high altitude mountainous areas. The inversion effect of IMERG on Rx5day precipitation is better than that of other extreme precipitation indices (extreme daily precipitation, maximum single-day precipitation, strong precipitation and heavy rain days), with higher correlation coefficient, lower relative deviation and lower normalized root mean square error. IMERG precipitation product has great seasonal and regional differences in the detection potential of extreme precipitation events. The capture ability in summer is better than that in other seasons, and the capture ability in low-altitude areas is better than that in high-altitude areas. In summer or low altitude areas, IMERG precipitation product has high hit rate, high critical success rateand low false alarm rate.

     

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