多元夏季风协同作用对青藏高原夏季降水的影响

Synergy of Multiple Summer Monsoon on Summer Precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau

  • 摘要: 选取1979—2020年全球降水气候中心(GPCC)的降水资料和欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的ERA-5再分析资料,通过对比分析东亚夏季风(EASM)、南亚夏季风(SASM)和高原夏季风(PSM)强度指数与青藏高原(下称“高原”)夏季降水的相关关系,将夏季风系统强度的协同配置分为8种,利用合成分析探究了多元夏季风协同作用对高原夏季降水的影响。结果表明:东亚夏季风指数与高原夏季降水呈负相关,南亚夏季风和高原夏季风指数均与高原夏季降水呈正相关。夏季,高原东部降水与东亚夏季风联系较为密切,高原中、西部降水与南亚夏季风联系更为紧密,高原整体降水与高原夏季风有着很好的相关关系。在多元季风协同作用中,高原夏季风的强弱是高原地区夏季降水多寡的主要影响因素,高原夏季风和南亚夏季风的协同作用对高原夏季降水异常的作用更为显著。强EASM-强SASM-强PSM年,西太平洋副热带高压偏东偏强,南亚高压偏东偏强,来自西太平洋的偏东南水汽输送偏强,印度半岛气旋式环流配合高原南侧反气旋式环流,引导孟加拉湾水汽向高原西南部输送,高原近地层气流辐合上升运动增强,高原东北部及西南缘降水偏多;强EASM-强SASM-弱PSM年的环流形势相反,高原中东部降水偏少。弱EASM-弱SASM-弱PSM年,西太平洋副热带高压偏西偏弱,南亚高压偏弱,孟加拉湾反气旋式环流将暖湿气流输送至高原东侧,高原西南侧为偏西北气流,高原近地层为辐散下沉气流,高原南部降水偏少;弱EASM-弱SASM-强PSM年的环流形势相反,高原中东部降水偏多,西部降水偏少。强EASM-弱SASM-强PSM年,西太平洋副热带高压偏东偏弱,南亚高压偏西偏弱,四川盆地异常反气旋引导西太平洋水汽输送至高原东部,孟加拉湾气旋式环流阻碍了高原西南部的水汽输送,高原南部有较弱的辐合上升气流,局地降水偏多;弱EASM-强SASM-弱PSM年的环流形势相反,高原西部和东北部降水偏多,东南部降水偏少。强EASM-弱SASM-弱PSM年,西太平洋副热带高压偏东偏弱,南亚高压偏西偏强,河套地区和阿拉伯海反气旋式环流阻碍了来自西太平洋和印度洋的水汽输送,高原南侧近地层辐合较弱且为下沉运动所控制,高原南部降水偏少;弱EASM-强SASM-强PSM年的环流形势相反,高原东南部降水异常偏多。

     

    Abstract: Based on the monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and the reanalysis data from ERA-5 from 1979 to 2020, the correlations of the intensity indexes of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) and the Plateau Summer Monsoon (PSM) with the summer precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau (Plateau)are compared and analyzed. The synergistic configuration of summer monsoon system intensity was divided into eight types, and the influence of the multiple summer monsoon synergy on the summer precipitation over the Plateau was explored by synthetic analysis. The results show that the EASM index is negatively correlated with summer precipitation on the Plateau, while the SASM index and the PSM index are positively correlated with summer precipitation on the Plateau. In summer, the precipitation in the eastern part of the Plateau is more closely linked to the EASM, while precipitation in the central and western parts of the Plateau is more closely linked to the SASM, and the PSM is well correlated with the overall precipitation in the Plateau. Among the multiple monsoon synergy, the strength of the PSM is the main influence on the amount of summer precipitation in the Plateau region, while the synergy between the PSM and the SASM is more closely associated with the summer precipitation anomaly in the Plateau. In the years of strong EASM-strong SASM-strong PSM, the Western Pacific Subtropical High is stronger to the east, the South Asia High is stronger and shifts to the east, the southeastern water vapour transport from the Western Pacific Ocean is stronger, the cyclonic circulation in the Indian Peninsula cooperates with the anticyclonic circulation on the southern side of the Plateau, guiding the water vapour transport from the Bay of Bengal to the southwestern part of the Plateau, the convergent upward movement of the airflow in the near-surface layer of the Plateau is enhanced, leading to more precipitation in the northeastern part of the Plateau and the southwestern edge. The opposite is true for the circulation of strong EASM-strong SASM-weak PSM years, with less precipitation in the central-eastern part of the Plateau. In the weak EASM-weak SASM-weak PSM years, the Western Pacific Subtropical High is weaker and shifts to the west, the South Asian High is weaker, the anticyclonic circulation in the Bay of Bengal transports warm and humid air to the east of the Plateau, the southwestern side of the Plateau has northwesterly airflow, water vapor transport is low, the near ground layer of the Plateau is divergent and sinking airflow, resulting in less precipitation in the southern part of the Plateau. The opposite is true for the circulation of the weak EASM-weak SASM-strong PSM years, with more precipitation in the east-central part of the Plateau and less precipitation in the west. In the strong EASM-weak SASM-strong PSM years, the Western Pacific Subtropical High is weaker and shifts to the east meanwhile the South Asian High is weaker and shifts to the west, the anomalous anticyclone in the Sichuan Basin guides the transport of water vapour from the Western Pacific to the eastern part of the Plateau, while the cyclonic circulation in the Bay of Bengal hinders the transport of water vapour in the southwestern part of the Plateau, the convergent upward movement of the airflow in the southern part of the Plateau leads to more precipitation in part of the areas. The opposite is true for the circulation of the weak EASM-strong SASM-weak PSM years, with more precipitation in the western and north-eastern of the Plateau and less precipitation in the south-eastern part of the Plateau. In the strong EASM-weak SASM-weak PSM years, the Western Pacific Subtropical High is weaker and shifts to the east and the South Asian High is stronger and shifts to the west, the anticyclonic circulation in the Hetao and the Arabian Sea hinders moisture transport from the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean. The convergence of the surface layer on the south side of the Plateau is weak and controlled by downward movement, resulting in less precipitation there. The circulation situation in weak EASM-strong SASM-strong PSM years is opposite, causing unusually more precipitation in the southeastern part of the Plateau.

     

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