基于TIGGE资料的四川盆地暴雨中期预报性能评估

Performance Evaluation of Medium-range Rainstorm Forecast in Sichuan Basin Based on TIGGE Data

  • 摘要: 选取2007—2019年6—8月四川盆地气象观测站点逐时降水资料、ERA5再分析资料和ECMWF模式00时起报1~10 d累计降水预报资料,在评估ECMWF模式对四川盆地总降水量、暴雨累计降水量、暴雨日数、暴雨强度预报能力的基础上,基于降水观测资料挑选出170个四川盆地暴雨个例,采用K-means均值聚类法对其500 hPa位势高度场进行客观分型,将四川盆地暴雨分为3型并计算其TS评分,初步分析了造成各类暴雨可预报性差异的原因。结果表明:(1)ECMWF模式预报的四川盆地总降水量偏多,暴雨累计降水量和暴雨日数偏少,暴雨强度偏弱;随预报时效增加,总降水量、暴雨累计降水量、暴雨日数逐渐增多,暴雨强度无明显的变化趋势。模式对中小雨量级降水空报较多,暴雨量级降水存在漏报,暴雨累计降水量大值中心主要是降水频次较多所致,而非较大降水强度。(2)四川盆地暴雨可分为全盆型、盆东型和盆西型。全盆型和盆东型暴雨最优预报时效为1~4 d,盆西型为1~3 d;1~10 d预报时效内,全盆型和盆东型暴雨TS评分最低时段分别为6~7 d,盆西型为4~5 d;6~8 d预报时效内,盆西型暴雨预报效果最好;全盆型TS评分整体上高于盆东型。(3)四川盆地500 hPa环流形势和850 hPa风场、比湿预报优劣与TS评分高低关系较为密切,可能是影响四川盆地暴雨预报的主要因子。

     

    Abstract: Based on the hourly precipitation data of meteorological observation stations in Sichuan Basin from June to August (2007—2019), the ERA5 reanalysis data and the cumulative precipitation forecast data for 1 to 10 days from 00:00 of ECMWF model in Tigge Data Distribution Center, the prediction ability of ECMWF model for total precipitation, accumulated rainstorm water, rainstorm days and rainstorm intensity in Sichuan Basin was evaluated. 170 rainstorm cases in Sichuan Basin were selected based on the precipitation observation data, and the objective circulation classification of 500 hPa geopotential height field was carried out by using K-means clustering method. The rainstorm in Sichuan Basin was divided into 3 types and the TS scores of each type were calculated. The causes of the difference in predictability of each type of rainstorm were preliminarily analyzed. The results show that: (1) The total precipitation forecasted by ECMWF model in Sichuan Basin is more, the accumulated precipitation and the number of rainstorm days are less, and the intensity of rainstorm is weaker; With the increase of forecast time, the total precipitation, the rainstorm accumulative precipitation and the number of rainstorm days gradually increase. The intensity of rainstorm has no obvious upward and downward trend. The model has many empty reports of small and moderate rainfall, and there are omissions of rainstorm rainfall. The center of heavy rain accumulation is mainly formed by more precipitation frequency rather than larger precipitation intensity. (2) The objective classification of rainstorm in Sichuan Basin can be summarized as the whole basin type, the east basin type and the west basin type. The optimum forecast time of rainstorm in whole basin type and east basin type is 1~4 days, and that in west basin type is 1~3 days. During the period of 1~10 days, the lowest TS value of the whole basin type and the east basin type is 6~7 days, and that of the west basin type is 4~5 days. In the period of 6~8 days, the rainstorm forecast effect of the west basin type is the best. The TS score of the whole basin type is higher than that of the east basin type. (3) The circulation pattern at 500 hPa and the wind field and specific humidity at 850 hPa in Sichuan Basin are closely related to the TS score, which may be the main factors affecting the rainstorm forecast in Sichuan Basin.

     

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