四川极端性暴雨的研究进展及新认识

Research Progress and New Understanding of Extreme Rainstorms in Sichuan

  • 摘要: 长期以来,具有陡峭地形特色的四川极端性暴雨一直是预报的难点,不仅破坏性强,而且经常诱发洪水、山洪、泥石流、塌方等次生灾害。本文聚焦于近年四川极端性暴雨研究,从观测、机理及预警预报技术等方面进行回顾。总结得出:四川极端性暴雨主要与中尺度对流系统(Mesoscale Convection Systems,MCSs)活动有关,不同区域中暴雨发生机制存在差异,其中盆地西部极端暴雨与双次级垂直环流调控机制有关;盆地东部极端暴雨与中尺度涡旋发展或涡—涡耦合引起的大螺旋度作用有关;攀西地区极端暴雨则与盆地东北风和低纬暖湿西南气流在大凉山附近形成的动力性地形切变有关。在预报预警技术方面,得益于卫星、雷达及高分辨率数值模式支撑,以及各类预报订正技术改进,使得四川复杂地形区的极端性暴雨水平有了显著提升,但百米级分辨率的定量预报仍需加强。

     

    Abstract: The extreme rainstorms in Sichuan with steep terrain characteristics has always been difficult to forecast, not only because of their destructive nature, but also because they often induce secondary disasters such as floods, flash floods, mudslides and landslides. In this paper, the studies of recent research on extreme rainstorms in Sichuan are summarized, and the observation, mechanism, and early warning and forecasting techniques are reviewed. It is concluded that the extreme rainstorms are mainly related to the activities of Mesoscale Convection Systems (MCSs), and the mechanism of rainstorms varies in different regions, among which the extreme rainstorms in the western part of the Basin are related to the control mechanism of the double-secondary vertical circulation, while the extreme rainstorms in the eastern part of the Basin are related to the large helix caused by the development of mesoscale eddies or vortex-vortex coupling. The extreme rainstorms in Panxi area are related to the dynamical topographic shear formed by the northeasterly winds of the Basin and the warm-humid southwesterly airflow near Liangshan. In terms of forecast and warning techniques, due to the support of satellite, radar and high-resolution numerical models, as well as the improvement of various forecast revision techniques, the level of extreme rainstorms in the complex terrain of Sichuan has been significantly improved, but the quantitative forecasts with 100-metre resolution still need to be strengthened.

     

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