金沙江下游一次暴雨过程的诊断分析和数值模拟

Diagnostic Analysis and Numerical Simulation of a Rainstorm Process in the Lower Reaches of Jinsha River

  • 摘要: 选取国家基本站和区域自动站雨量、ERA5再分析、FY-4A卫星TBB等资料,通过诊断分析和数值模拟,分析了2020年9月发生在金沙江下游的一次暴雨过程。结果表明:这次突发性暴雨发生在冷空气南下和高原对流系统东移的天气背景下,金沙江流域前期充足的水汽条件和不稳定层结为暴雨的发生提供了有利条件;当冷空气南下时,冷暖气流的交汇使得东移的高原对流云团继续维持,导致了这次突发性暴雨过程的发生;数值模拟进一步揭示出冷空气到达流域北部时与西南气流、贵州涡东风回流在流域西北部汇合造成降水,当冷空气南侵接近白鹤滩坝区时,浅薄的冷空气顺着金沙江河谷进入暴雨区内,强迫抬升西南气流,形成对暴雨发展具有正反馈作用的垂直环流圈,导致暴雨进一步加强。

     

    Abstract: Based on the rainfall data of national basic stations and regional automatic stations, ERA5 reanalysis data and FY-4A satellite TBB data, a rainstorm in the lower reaches of Jinsha River in September 2020 was analyzed by diagnostic analysis and numerical simulation. The results showed that the sudden rainstorm occurred under the weather background of cold air moving southward and plateau convection systemmoving eastward, and the sufficient water vapor condition and unstable layer in the early stage in Jinsha River Basin provided favorable environment for the occurrence of rainstorm. When the cold air moved southward, the convergence of warm and cold air kept the plateau convective clouds moving eastward, which led to the occurrence of this sudden rainstorm. The numerical simulation further revealed that when the cold air reached the north of the basin, the cold air merged with the southwest flow and the easterly flow of Guizhou vortex in the northwest of the basin, which resulted in precipitation. And when the cold air invaded southward near the Baihetan dam area, the shallow cold air entered the rainstorm area along the Jinsha River valley, forcimg the uplift of the southwest airflow, formig a vertical circulation circle with positive feedback effect on the development of the rainstorm, which further strengthened the rainstorm.

     

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