四川省龙门山暴雨灾害旅游风险评估

Tourism Risk Assessment of Rainstorm Disaster in Longmen Mountain in Sichuan Province

  • 摘要: 选取1970~2020年四川省龙门山15个气象观测站逐日降水资料和对应15个市县2015~2019年多项统计数据(年均GDP、旅游经济收入、年接待游客人数、当地人口数、公路运输里程和卫生医疗床位数),基于自然灾害风险评估理论并利用层析分析法,从致灾因子危险性、承灾体易损性、孕灾环境敏感性、防灾减灾能力四方面对四川省龙门山暴雨灾害旅游风险进行评估。结果表明:(1)四川省龙门山暴雨灾害旅游风险的致灾因子危险性呈“山地低、平原高”的特征,都江堰致灾因子危险性最高,平武最低;(2)其承灾体易损性呈“山地高、平原低”的特征,理县承灾体易损性最高,江油最低;(3)其孕灾环境敏感性呈“山地高、平原低”的特征,彭州孕灾环境敏感性最高,北川最低;(4)其防灾减灾能力呈“山地弱、平原强”的特征,汶川防灾减灾能力最弱,江油最强;(5)其综合评估呈“山地高、平原低”的特征,理县暴雨灾害旅游风险最高,崇州最低,与实际暴雨灾情一致。

     

    Abstract: Based on the daily precipitation data of 15 conventional ground observation stations in Longmen Mountain of Sichuan Province from 1970 to 2020 and the statistical data of 15 counties from 2015 to 2019, the tourism risk of rainstorm disasters in Longmen Mountain of Sichuan Province was evaluated from four aspects : the hazard of disaster-causing factors, the vulnerability of disaster-bearing body, the sensitivity of disaster-pregnant environment and the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation based on chromatography analysis method and natural disaster risk degree. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The hazard of rainstorm disaster-causing factors in Longmen Mountain of Sichuan Province presents the characteristics of “low mountain and high plain”.Dujiangyan has the highest hazard of disaster-causing factors and Pingwu has the lowest hazard; (2) The vulnerability of tourism risk bearing body shows the characteristics of “ high mountain and low plain”, the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body in Lixian County is the highest and that in Jiangyou County is the lowest. (3) The sensitivity of disaster environment is characterized by ' high mountain and low plain '. The sensitivity of disaster environment in Pengzhou is the highest and that in Beichuan is the lowest. (4) The ability of disaster prevention and mitigation is characterized by ' weak mountain and strong plain '. The ability of disaster prevention and mitigation in Wenchuan is the weakest, and that in Jiangyou is the strongest. (5) The comprehensive evaluation is characterized by ' high mountain and low plain '. The tourism risk of rainstorm disaster in Lixian County is the highest, and that in Chongzhou is the lowest, which is consistent with the actual rainstorm disaster.

     

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