1991~2020年四川省气候平均值的变化及业务应用评估

Changes of Average Climate Value in Sichuan Province from 1991 to 2020 and Assessment of Operational Applications

  • 摘要: 利用1991~2020年与1981~2010年四川省156个国家气象站地面气候平均值资料,从年、月尺度对比分析了新旧2个30 a气候平均值的差值分布特征及业务应用差异。结果表明:(1)近30 a四川省年平均气温升高了0.3 ℃,年内各月平均气温均升高,全省93.7%站点增温0.1~0.5℃。(2)近30 a四川省平均年降水量增多3.8 mm,年内6~10月降水量差值变化大,川西高原年降水量大部地区以增多为主,盆地和攀西地区以减少为主。(3)启用新30 a气候平均值后,四川省大部地区年、月平均气温距平有所降低,全省平均年降水量距平变化不大,但各地年、月降水量距平变化区域差异显著。(4)四川地区冬季平均气温升高,近42 a中(1981~2022年)暖冬减少6 a,冷冬增加5 a;春季平均气温升幅大,盆地常年春季开始日期提早,持续天数增加。(5)气候平均值的改变对气象要素及气候事件监测评价等业务应用有较大影响。

     

    Abstract: Based on the climate average data of 156 national meteorological stations in Sichuan Province from 1991 to 2020 and from 1981 to 2010, the difference distribution characteristics and business application differences of the two 30-year climate average values are compared and analyzed from the annual and monthly scales. The results show that: (1) In the past 30 years, the annual average temperature in Sichuan Province has increased by 0.3 ℃, the average temperature of each month has increased, and the temperature of 93.7% stations in Sichuan Province has increased by 0.1 ~ 0.5 ℃. (2)In the past 30 years, the average annual precipitation in Sichuan Province has increased by 3.8mm, and the precipitation difference changed greatly from June to October, the annual precipitation in most areas of Western Sichuan Plateau increased, while that in the Basin and Panxi area reduced. (3) After the implementation of the new 30-year climate average, the annual and monthly average temperature anomaly in most areas of Sichuan Province decreased, and the average annual precipitation anomaly in the whole province did not change much, but there were great regional differences in the annual and monthly precipitation anomaly. (4) The average temperature in winter in Sichuan has increased, in the past 42 years, the warm winter has decreased by 6 years and the cold winter has increased by 5 years; In spring, the temperature increased greatly, the start date of spring in the Basin is earlier, and the number of continuous days increased. (5)The change of climate average value has a great impact on the business application of meteorological elements and climate event monitoring and evaluation.

     

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