Abstract: Based on the monthly precipitation data of 30 meteorological stations in the lower reaches of Jinsha River from 1960 to 2020, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) was selected as the meteorological drought index, and the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought in the basin were analyzed with 3 months and 12 months as time scales. Further, the prediction models of Mean Generation Function were established for drought of the south and north regions respectively. Results showed that :The first pattern of drought in the lower reaches of Jinsha River is the synchronous change of the whole region, and the second pattern is the opposite change in the north and south.The frequency of drought in the three-month time scale is high and the range is wide, mainly light drought. The drought frequency of 12-month time scale is lower than that of 3-month time scale, and the proportion of medium drought and severe drought in the north of the basin is higher than that of 3-month scale. The annual drought intensity and scope show an increasing trend. In addition to the weakening trend of drought intensity in winter, the other three seasons show an increasing trend. For the range of drought, it shows an expanding trend in autumn, a decreasing trend in spring and winter, and no obvious change in summer. Furthermore, the frequency of drought is the highest in summer, and it has the greatest impact on the annual drought. The prediction models of Mean Generation Function have some ability to predict drought, and the simulation effect of extreme values is better. Furthermore, the prediction model in the south of the basin has better simulation and prediction ability than that in the north.