重庆强降水过程QPE/FY-4A估测降水精度研究

Study on the QPE / FY-4A Precipitation Estimation during Heavy Rainfall in Chongqing

  • 摘要: 为检验风云四号A星气象卫星(FY-4A)定量降水估测(Quantitative Precipitation Estimation,QPE)产品在重庆地区的精度,针对重庆发生的两次区域暴雨过程,利用区域自动气象站实测降水资料,分析了QPE产品对强降水过程估测的时空偏差特征,并对其进行优化处理。结果表明:FY-4A卫星QPE产品能反映强降水的空间分布和强度,对其强度和落区变化趋势有一定的指示性;整体看,估测降水强度、范围均较实况偏大,估测强降水位置与实况有一定偏差,估测降水持续时间偏长。优化后的QPE产品与实测降水在强度和范围上基本保持一致,均方根误差均小于10,其估测准确率进一步提高。

     

    Abstract: In order to checkout the accuracy of the precipitation estimation product (QPE) of FY-4A meteorological satellite (FY-4A) in Chongqing, choosing two precipitation processes in Chongqing, based on the QPE data of FY-4A and the actual precipitation data of Chongqing automatic weather station, the spatial and temporal deviation characteristics of QPE estimation were analyzed and optimized by using the measured precipitation data of regional automatic weather station. The results show that the QPE data of FY-4A can reflect the spatial distribution and intensity of heavy precipitation in the process of heavy precipitation, and has certain indication to the intensity of heavy precipitation and the change trend of precipitation area. On the whole, the estimated precipitation intensity and range are larger than the actual situatation, There is a certain deviation between the estimated location of heavy precipitation and the actual situation, and the estimated rainfall duration is relatively long. The optimized QPE products are basically consistent with the measured precipitation in intensity and scope, and the accuracy of QPE has been improved in Chongqing, with root mean square error less than 10.

     

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