多种融合降水实况分析产品在雅安宝兴暴雨过程中的适用性评估

Applicability Assessment of Merged Precipitation Real-time Products in the Process of Flood Disaster in Baoxing, Ya'an

  • 摘要: 利用四川省地面逐小时降水观测资料,对国家气象信息中心研制的空间分辨率分别为0.01°和0.05°的三套逐时融合降水实况分析产品,在2019年8月20~22日引发雅安宝兴洪涝灾害的区域性暴雨天气过程中的表现进行评估分析。结果表明:三套融合降水实况分析产品的强降水落区和走向与站点实况基本一致,能较好地反映降水强弱变化和时空分布特征。三套融合降水实况分析产品的平均晴雨准确率都在85%以上,与站点实况的相关系数均在0.8以上,但均较站点实况存在不同程度的低估。相对而言,融合雷达、卫星、站点数据的0.01°产品最优,融合雷达、卫星、站点数据的0.05°产品次之,只融合卫星、站点数据的0.05°产品最差,可见融合站点数据能在一定程度上改善融合降水实况分析产品的质量。总体而言,融合降水实况分析产品的质量较高,在灾害性天气过程中可作为站点实况的有效补充。

     

    Abstract: Based on the hourly precipitation observation data of Sichuan Province, the three sets of hourly merged precipitation real-time products with spatial resolutions of 0.01° and 0.05° developed by National Meteorological Information Centre are evaluated and analyzed in the regional rainstorm weather process causing the flood and waterlogging disaster in Baoxing, Ya’an from August 20 to 22, 2019. The results show that the heavy precipitation area and trend of the three sets of merged precipitation real-time products are basically consistent with the actual precipitation, which can reflect the precipitation intensity change and spatiotemporal trends well. The average accuracy rate of the three sets of merged precipitation real-time products is above 85%, and the correlation coefficient is above 0.8, but there are different degrees of underestimaiton compared with the actual precipitation. The applicability of 0.01° product with radar, satellite and site data is the best, 0.05° product merged data of the stations, radars and satellites comes second, 0.05° product only with the stations and satellites is the worst. It can be seen that the fusion site data can improve the quality of the merged precipitation real-time products to a certain extent. In general, the quality of the merged precipitation real-time products is high, which can be used as a supplement to the actual precipitation in the process of disastrous weather.

     

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