国家级多源融合温度产品在云南的适用性评估

Applicability Assessment of National-level Multi-source Fusion Temperature Products in Yunnan

  • 摘要: 利用2018年1月1日00时~2020年8月31日23时国家级多源融合逐时温度产品和国家级地面气象观测站逐时温度资料,针对平均误差、均方根误差、相关系数、时间误差等指标,对融合温度产品在云南的适用性进行评估。结果表明:融合产品小时温度平均误差介于−1~1℃,均方根误差在1.8℃以下,相关系数在0.95以上;融合产品极值温度在滇西北误差均较大,最高温在1~2月误差大,最低温在5~6月误差最大;极值温度出现时间和实况极值出现时间误差为0 h的占比,最高温和最低温分别是70%和73%;在时间不一致样本中,时间误差在2 h内的占比,最高温和最低温分别是86%和41%,最低温时间误差超过12 h的占40%。综合来看,融合温度产品在云南有较好的适用性,最高温的反演效果优于最低温。受降水、地形和海拔等因素的影响,融合温度产品在云南存在一定的系统性误差。

     

    Abstract: Based on the hourly temperature data of national multi-source fusion products and national ground meteorological observation stations from 00:00 on January 1, 2018 to 23:00 on August 31, 2020 (Beijing time), the applicability of fusion temperature products in Yunnan is evaluated according to the indicators such as average error, root mean square error, correlation coefficient and time error. The results show that the average error of hourly temperature of fusion products was between −1 ℃~1 ℃, the root mean square error was less than 1.8 ℃, and the correlation coefficient was above 0.95. For the extreme temperature test, it was found that the extreme temperature errors were larger in northwest Yunnan. The maximum temperature had a large error from January to February. The error between the maximum temperature occurrence time of the fusion product and the actual maximum temperature occurrence time was 0 hours, accounting for 70% of the total samples. In the time inconsistent samples, the time error within 2 hours accounted for 86%, and the fusion products accounted for more in advance than the actual ones. The minimum temperature had the largest error from May to June, and the time error of 0 hours accounted for 73% of the total samples. In the time inconsistent samples, the time error within 2 hours accounted for 41%, more than 12 hours accounted for 40%, and the time delay of extreme value was relatively high. On the whole, the fusion temperature product has good applicability in Yunnan, and the inversion effect of the maximum temperature is better than that of the minimum temperature. Due to the influence of precipitation, terrain, altitude and other factors, the fusion temperature product has a certain systematic error in Yunnan.

     

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