云南一次城市极端强降水事件成因分析

Analysis on Reasons of a City Extreme Heavy Rainfall Event Happened in Yunnan Province

  • 摘要: 利用云南乡镇自动站降水资料、短时强降水监测资料、FY2G卫星资料、高空地面常规观测资料和NCEP再分析资料,从天气学角度分析了2020年夏季昆明一次城市极端强降水事件的成因。结果表明:受滇缅高压脊作用,高原槽东移后在云南东北部形成高原低涡,高原低涡沿着两高辐合区南移影响昆明,高原低涡和切变线是本次昆明极端强降水的主要影响系统,昆明极端强降水发生在高原低涡和切变线附近水汽辐合程度大的区域;此次强降水过程的不稳定机制为对流不稳定和对称不稳定并存,其中对称不稳定使倾斜对流得以维持;边界层辐合线触发近地层垂直上升运动和中尺度对流系统的生成,700 hPa切变线和500 hPa低涡使中尺度对流系统发展,垂直上升运动增强,触发不稳定能量的释放,引发强降水;涡生参数正值区对高原低涡的产生和移动方向的预测有指示意义。

     

    Abstract: Yunnan town automatic precipitation data, short-time heavy rainfall monitoring data, FY2G satellite data, upper air and surface convention data and NCEP reanalyzing data were used to analyze synoptic reasons of a city extreme heavy rainfall event happened in Kunming in the summer of 2020. Research indicated that: Affected by Yunnan-Burma ridge, plateau trough moved eastward and formed plateau vortex in the northeast of Yunnan. The plateau vortex moved southward along convergence area between two highs and then influenced Kunming. Plateau vortex and shear line were main weather systems of the extreme heavy rainfall event, and the heavy precipitation happened near plateau vortex and shear line where vapor converged strongly. Equivalent potential temperature, equivalent potential vortex were used to diagnose instability property. Instability mechanisms of the heavy rainfall event were convective instability and symmetric instability, and symmetric instability maintained the slantwise convection. Boundary convergence line caused surface vertical ascending motion and then meso-scale convective systems produced. Shear line at 700 hPa and vortex at 500 hPa promoted convective systems developing, and vertical ascending motion enhanced. Vertical ascending motion triggered the releasing of instability which leaded to heavy rainfall event. Vortex Producing Parameter positive area may forecast the generating and moving direction of plateau vortex.

     

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