基于MaxEnt模型的四川省冬小麦气候适宜性区划

Regionalization of Climatic Suitability for Winter Wheat in Sichuan Based on MaxEnt Model

  • 摘要: 基于2019年四川省97个县市区冬小麦的种植信息,以及1980~2021年159个气象站数据,选取影响冬小麦种植分布的13个潜在气候影响因子,结合最大熵模型(MaxEnt),构建了冬小麦种植分布和气候因子的关系模型。结果表明:主导气候因子贡献率大小的为年日照时数>1月平均气温>年平均低温>年降水量>年相对湿度;冬小麦的潜在适宜区主要分布在99°E以东,26°~33°N区域;未来气候背景下,大部分市州总适宜区面积无明显变化。

     

    Abstract: Based on the information of geographical plantation for winter wheat in 97 counties and urban of Sichuan Province in 2019, and the meteorological data of 159 stations from 1980 to 2021, 13 factors that might have potential influence on the distribution of the winter wheat plantation are selected, considerring the distribution mechanism of plant species, the relationship between potential distribution of the winter wheat plantation and climatic factors is established by using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. The results show that: The dominant climatic factors affecting the distribution of the winter wheat plantation are annual sunshine hours > mean temperature of the January > annual mean minimum temperature > annual precipitation > annual relative humidity. The suitable region of the winter wheat is mainly located within east of 99°E and 26~33°N. Under the background of future climate, the total suitable area of most cities and prefectures will not change significantly.

     

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