阿坝州雷电灾害风险区划分析

Analysis of Lightning Disaster Risk Zoning in Aba

  • 摘要: 利用2013~2017年阿坝州的雷电监测系统数据,对阿坝州雷电灾害的孕灾环境敏感性、致灾因子危险性、承灾体易损性和防灾减灾能力四个雷电灾害风险因子进行区划研究。结果表明:按高、次高、中等、次低、低五个等次可得到阿坝州雷电灾害风险区划;雷电灾害风险值由东南部向西部及南部递减;次高~高风险区主要集中在市东南部,其中高风险区主要分布在汶川县、茂县、理县东南部、九寨沟东北部、若尔盖中部等地区,次高~高风险地区或者由于降雨频率相对较高,或者因为地势较低,或是江河的主要流经区,或承灾体易损性较强,抗灾能力较弱,因此发生雷电灾害的风险最高;而西部的壤塘县、阿坝县、金川县、红原县、小金县、松潘县等区域是低~次低风险区,这些地区或者由于雷电频率相对较小、致害性不强,或者由于海拔相对较高,或是生产水平较低,雷电灾害致灾的可能性较小;市内其余地区位于中等风险区。

     

    Abstract: Based on the data of lightning monitoring system in Aba from 2013 to 2017, this paper conducts research on risk zoning of four lightning disaster risk factors including sensitivity of disaster-inducing environment, risk of disaster-inducing factors, risk vulnerability of disaster-bearing body and capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation. The result show that: The lightning disaster risk zoning of Aba can be obtained according to five grades, includeing high, sub-high, medium, sub-low and low. The risk value of lightning disaster decreases from southeast to west and south, the sub-high to high-risk areas are mainly concentrated in the southeast of the city, and the high-risk areas are mainly distributed in the southeast of Wenchuan County, Maoxian County, Lixian County, the northeast of Jiuzhaigou, and the middle of Ruoergai County. Sub-high to high-risk areas are either the main flow area of rivers, or due to the following factors, such as relatively high rainfall frequency, low terrain, vulnerable disaster-bearing body and weak ability to resist disasters, so they have higher risk of lightning disasters. In the west, Rangtang County, Aba County, Jinchuan County, Hongyuan County, Xiaojin County, Songpan County and other regions are low to sub-low risk areas, for they are less likely to be affected by lightning disasters due to relatively small lightning frequency, weak damage, or relatively high altitude or low production level. The rest of the city is in the medium risk area.

     

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