基于MCI指数的宜宾市干旱时空变化特征

Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of Drought in Yibin City Based on MCI Index

  • 摘要: 利用宜宾市10个国家气象站1971~ 2020 年的气象资料,采用FAOPenman- Monteith 模型计算MCI,研究近50年来宜宾气象干旱时空特征,并进行了MCI的M-K检验。结果表明:宜宾市年平均干旱日数年际波动比较大,从20世纪70年代到21世纪10年代,干旱日数呈增加趋势,之后呈下降趋势;冬季和夏季干旱日数呈增加趋势,春季和秋季干旱日数呈减少趋势;20世纪70年代后期到21世纪10年代中年际干旱日数呈上升趋势,尤其1995~2015年出现了异常干旱,在显著水平0.05临界值(±1.96)之外,突变点为1975年。

     

    Abstract: Based on the meteorological data of 10 national meteorological stations in Yibin from 1971 to 2020 and the meteorological drought comprehensive index (MCI) calculated by FAO Penman Monteith model, this paper studies and analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristics of drought in Yibin in recent 50 years. The results pass the M-K mutation test of MCI drought index. The results show that: The annual average number of drought days in Yibin fluctuated greatly from 1970s to 2010s, and the number of drought days increased then decreased. The number of drought days increased in winter and summer, and decreased in spring and autumn. From the late 1970s to the mid-2010s, the number of drought days in Yibin City showed an upward trend. In particular, there was an abnormal drought from 1995 to 2015, and the number of drought days was outside the critical value of significant level 0.05 (± 1.96), and the mutation point was 1975.

     

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