一次冰雹天气过程的探空潜势预报和雷达预警指标检验

Sounding Potential Forecast and Radar Warning Index Test for a Hail Weather Process

  • 摘要: 利用2019年12月1日~2020年12月31日08时和20时宜宾探空物理量参数,综合评估宜宾冰雹潜势预报指标和雷达预警指标的实用性,并应用于2020年5月4日夜间的一次冰雹过程。结果表明:4日08时的探空潜势预报对防雹工作提前准备具有一定的指导作用,20时预报无冰雹,但夜间发生强对流冰雹天气的可能性非常大,所以探空潜势预报和实况存在偏差;4日23时30分和5日01时15分的两次冰雹,雷达预警指标给予了充分的指导,冰雹在预警指标成立的5min内出现;总的来说,探空潜势预报和雷达预警指标有一定的指导性,但预报和预警指标存在的一定偏差,还需要进一步的细化指标。

     

    Abstract: By using the physical quantity parameters of Yibin sounding at 08:00 and 20:00 from December 1, 2019 to December 31, 2020, the practicability of the potential forecast index and radar warning index of Yibin hail are evaluated comprehensively, it is applied to a hail process on the night of May 4, 2020. The results show that: The sounding potential forecast at 08:00 on May 4 had certain guidance significance in the early preparation of hail prevention work. No hail was forecasted at 20:00, but there was great possibility of strong convective hail weather at night, so the deviation between the sounding potential forecast and the actual situation did exist. The radar warning index gave sufficient guidance to the two hails at 23:30 on May 4 and 01:15 on May 5, and hails appeared within 5 minutes of the warning index. In general, the sounding potential forecast and radar early warning index had certain guidance significance, but they had certain deviations, so further refinement was needed.

     

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