基于降水现象的自动观测资料评估分析

Evaluation and Analysis of Automatic Observations Data Based on Precipitation Phenomena

  • 摘要: 选取温江、峨眉山等10个观测站2018年1~10月自动和人工观测降水现象和降水量数据,以人工观测为参考值,按照不同降水过程次数和降水发生的分钟数从捕获率、漏报率、空报率、错报率、吻合率和起止时间绝对误差等进行了分析。结果表明:自动观测捕获率夜间明显高于白天,雨的捕获率高于雪和雨夹雪,强降水的捕获率高于弱降水。固态降水错报率和漏报率高于液态和混合降水;在无降水现象发生时,自动观测的雨和毛毛雨出现空报率为1.99~2.18%;对于液态降水现象而言,降水粒子越小空报率越高;雨的吻合率好于雪和雨夹雪。自动和人工观测起止时间差异较明显,差值绝对误差ΔT>15 min所占比例高于ΔT≤15 min,ΔT≤15 min所占比例也随着降水量级的增大而增大。

     

    Abstract: Selecting weather phenomenon and minute precipitation data of both automatic and artificial observation in parallel of 10 stations, such as Wenjiang and Mount Emei, from January 2018 to October 2018 and taking the artificial observation values as reference, according to the number of different precipitation processes and the number of minutes of precipitation, this paper evaluates and analyzes indexes of accuracy of artificial and automatic observation such as capture rate, missing rate, failure rate, error rate, matching rate and absolute error of starting and ending time. The results show that the capture rate of precipitation phenomena observed automatically at night is obviously higher than that during the day, and the capture rate of precipitation is higher than that of snow and sleet. The capture rate of heavy precipitation is higher than that of weak precipitation. The error and missing rates of solid precipitation are higher than that of liquid precipitation and mixed precipitation. Without precipitation phenomenon, the failure rate of precipitation and drizzle is about from 1.99% to 2.18%. The matching rate of precipitation is better than that of snow and sleet. There is a significant difference of the starting and ending time between automatic and artificial observation, and the proportion of absolute error ΔT > 15 min is higher than that of ΔT ≤ 15 min, and the proportion of ΔT ≤ 15 min also increases with the increase of precipitation.

     

/

返回文章
返回