2020/2021年冬季河南连续两次寒潮过程对比分析

Comparative Analysis of Two Consecutive Cold Wave Processes in Henan in the Winter of 2020/2021

  • 摘要: 基于常规观测资料、NECP(1°×1°)再分析资料,对2020年12月28日~2021年1月7日河南连续发生的两次寒潮过程进行对比分析。结果表明:鄂霍茨克海极涡和东亚大槽强度较常年同期偏强,我国北方持续为负距平控制为两次寒潮连续发生的背景;500 hPa贝加尔湖横槽转竖以及地面冷高压发展分裂,引导冷空气南下导致寒潮爆发;500 hPa冷舌温度均低于−48 ℃,冷高压中心强度均高于1075 hPa。前期回暖程度与24 h或48 h最强降温幅度具有正相关关系;当降温主要取决于冷平流时,近地面冷平流强度乘以影响时间可粗略估计寒潮爆发后的最强降温幅度。寒潮大风开始于地面气压显著增强的阶段,气压最强时大风也最强;当宜阳、宝丰与延安气压差分别达9.5 hPa和12 hPa时,豫西出现8级以上大风的概率极高。

     

    Abstract: Based on conventional observation data and NECP (1°×1°) reanalysis data, this paper compares and analyzes two consecutive cold wave processes occurred in Henan Province from December 28, 2020 to January 7, 2021. The results show the intensity of the Sea of Okhotsk polar vortex and the East Asian trough was stronger than the same period of the previous year, and the northern part of our country was continuously controlled by negative anomalies, which was the background of the two consecutive cold waves. The 500 hPa Lake Baikal trough turned vertical from horizontal and the surface cold high pressure developed and split, leading the cold air southward to cause the cold wave. The cold tongue temperatures at 500 hPa were all lower than −48 ℃, and the center intensities of cold high pressure strength were all above 1075 hPa. The degree of early warming had a positive correlation with the strongest cooling amplitude within 24h or 48h. When the cooling mainly depended on the cold advection, the intensity of the near-surface cold advection multiplied by the influence time could roughly estimate the strongest cooling amplitude after the cold wave broke out. The cold wave and gale started at the stage when the surface air pressure increased significantly, and the gale was also the strongest when the air pressure was the strongest. When the pressure difference between Yiyang, Baofeng and Yan'an reached 9.5 hPa and 12 hPa respectively, the probability of strong winds above 8 in western Henan was extremely high.

     

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