自贡七月暴雨天气特征分析

Analysis of Heavy Rain Characteristics in Zigong in July

  • 摘要: 应用地面气象观测、雷达、风云二号卫星等资料,对自贡7月的三次暴雨天气进行分析。结果表明:高空低值系统、地面冷空气和副高阻挡,使得三次暴雨天气小时雨量大,范围也较大。“7.15”暴雨过程实况较模式预报低涡位置偏南,副高东退较慢;“7.2”暴雨过程实况地面辐合线均偏东,预报降雨落区与实况略有误差。数值模式预报对雨带把握较好,但对降水强度均较实况偏弱、偏北。NCEP、SWC数值模式和四川省气象台指导预报的降水强度和落区与实况更为接近。

     

    Abstract: Three rainstorms in Zigong in July were analyzed by using ground meteorological observation, radar and Fengyun-2 satellite data. The results show that the high-altitude low-value system, ground cold air and subtropical high blocking make the hourly rainfall of three heavy rains large and the range large. About 7.15 rainstorm, the location of the observed vortex is souther than that predicted by the model, and the subtropical high retreats eastward slowly. About 7.2 rainstorm, the ground convergence line is easterly, and the forecast rainfall area has a slight error with the actual situation. The numerical model prediction has a good show of the rain belt, but weak and northward of the rainfall intensity. The precipitation intensity and falling area predicted by NCEP, SWC numerical models and Sichuan Meteorological Observatory are closer to the actual situation.

     

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