Abstract:
Based on the daily and hourly rainfall data, MICAPS data and ERA-Interim data of five national meteorological stations in Guangyuan City from 2000 to 2015, the rainstorm weather in Guangyuan City was analyzed from the aspects of spatial and temporal distribution characteristics, circulation situation, main influence system and rainstorm forecast index. The results show that the spatial distribution of rainstorm in Guangyuan City is more in the east than in the west and less in the south than in the north. The time distribution characteristics are early and late July and early September are two peaks of rainstorm. The nightfall characteristics of regional rainstorms are obvious, and 03~08 : 00 is the high occurrence period of short-term heavy rainfall ; 500hPa westerly circulation and subtropical high type ( low trough eastward shift type, subtropical high stable type, east high west low type and two high shear type ), as well as 700~850hPa influence system position and intensity difference will have obvious influence on rainstorm area and intensity. The changes of physical quantities such as water vapor, heat and power in the middle and lower layers can provide quantitative reference for the prediction of regional rainstorm.