Abstract:
Based on the return data of five state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems provided by Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) from 1993 to 2016, combined with ERA5 reanalysis data and GPCP precipitation data, the prediction performances for East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) are assessed. The results show the main features of EAWM climate state are well predicted by the C3S multi-system, which includes the Siberian High, Aleutian Low, the East Asian trough, the East Asian upper jet stream and East Asian surface temperature and precipitation. SEAS5, GloSea5, MF-Sys7, GCFS2 and other models have shown prediction skills for EAWM index (EAWMI), while the regional atmospheric circulation, surface temperature and precipitation anomalies related to EAWM are also well predicated. Atmospheric circulation, surface temperature and precipitation anomalies that SPSv3 shows are opposite to the observation and westward, which makes the model show a negative effect on EAWM.