Abstract:
By investigating the historical evolution of the stations, the GIS analysis of topographic environment and the spatial distribution characteristics of meteorological elements, the method of reasonably selecting representative climate stations in complex terrain areas is proposed, 48 representative climate stations in Guizhou province are selected to make the necessary verifications. Using methods such as time series analysis, climate abrupt change detection and multi-timescale analysis, the trends and the temporal and spatial characteristics of temperature change in Guizhou province during 1961~2020 are revealed. Major conclusions are as follows: (1) The average temperature in Guizhou province shows an increasing trend in the past 60 years totally, showing the change characteristics of first decline and then rise with the turning point in mid-1980s. The warming rate has been 0.26℃/10a since 1985, and the warming trend is very obvious, while the daily minmum temperature rises more obviously, and the corresponding winter temperature is the most obvious. (2) In the past 60 years, the average temperature rising rate in most areas of the province was 0.1~0.2℃/10a , and the warming rate in west areas of the province was more obvious than that in the east areas with obvious local difference. (3) The average temperature of Guizhou Province in 1987 and 1998 had a significant warming mutation, the large warming in 1987 changed the previous trend of continuous cooling, and the heating rate after 1998 was significantly increased. (4) The temperature change in Guizhou Province in the past 60 years has a main oscillation period of 20a , and the signal of this period begins to strengthen after the 21st century. At the end of the heating half cycle since 2012, according to the characteristics of its periodic oscillation, it is expected that the temperature in Guizhou Province might be decreased in the next 10 years.