1959~2019年宣汉降水变化特征分析

Analysis on the Characteristics of Precipitation Changes in Xuanhan from 1959 to 2019

  • 摘要: 选取1959~2019年宣汉气象站逐日降水数据,应用数理统计方法,分析了该地区的降水变化特征。结果表明:(1)1959年以来,宣汉年降水量呈增加趋势,气候倾向率为12.678mm/10a。(2)宣汉年均暴雨频次为4.7次/a,空间分布较为均匀,气候倾向率为0.1次/10a,集中出现在6~9月,其中7月最多,约占30%;年均大暴雨频次为0.5次/a,空间分布不均,近年频次增加,7月占比最大;伴有短时强降水的暴雨事件中,短时强降水主要出现在凌晨到上午,0~12时约占73.8%,其中又以8~10时最多。(3)宣汉年降水存在23~30a、12~20a及4~10a的周期变化特征,其中23~30a尺度代表性好,出现了3个较为完整的振荡周期。(4)宣汉暴雨频次存在25~32a、13~20a及4~10a的周期变化特征,其中13~20a尺度表现较好,出现了6.5个完整的振荡周期。

     

    Abstract: Using the precipitation data of Xuanhan National General Meteorological Station from 1959 to 2019, the characteristics of precipitation changes in Xuanhan was analyzed with mathematical statistics. The results show that: (1) Since 1959, the annual precipitation in Xuanhan has shown an increasing trend, and the climate trend tendency rate is 12.678mm/10a. (2) The average annual frequency of heavy rains is 4.7times/a, and the distribution is relatively even. The climate tendency rate is 0.1times/10a, which is concentrated in the period from Jun to September, and the largest proportion is in July, nearly 30%. The average frequency of heavy rainstorms is 0.5times/a, and the distribution is uneven. The frequency has increased in recent years, with the largest proportion in July. Heavy rains accompanied by short-term heavy precipitation in various precipitation periods, short-term heavy precipitation mainly occurs from early morning to morning, accounting for about 73.8% from 0:00 to 12:00, among which the most occurs from 8:00 to 10:00. (3) The annual precipitation has obvious periodic changes at the three scales of 23~30a, 12~20 a, and 4~10a. Among them, the 23~30a scale is representative, and there are three relatively complete oscillation cycles. (4) The frequency of torrential rains changes significantly in the three-scale cycles of 25~32a, 13-20a, and 4~10a. Among them, the 13~20a scale performs better, with 6.5 complete shock cycles.

     

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