Abstract:
Based on the ground hail observation data of 20 counties (cities) in Panxi area from 1986 to 2015, the multiple regression equation of hail frequency and longitude, latitude, altitude, slope and aspect in the key growth period of flue-cured tobacco was established. Combined with the observation data of flue-cured tobacco in Yanyuan County and the social and economic data in 2016, from four aspects including the risk of disaster causing factors, sensitivity of disaster pregnant environment, vulnerability of disaster bearing body and ability of disaster prevention and reduction, the hail frequency, tobacco seeding rate, terrain, rural economy and land cover in different growth stages of flue-cured tobacco are selected as zoning indicators. The risk zoning model of flue-cured tobacco hail disaster in Yanyuan County was established by using analytic hierarchy process,and the risk zoning of flue-cured tobacco hail disaster in Yanyuan County was completed based on GIS technology. The results showed that in the agricultural land area of Yanyuan County, the risk level of flue-cured tobacco hail disaster was mainly in medium and high grade, and the area of low-risk area was less.