Abstract:
Based on the statistical analysis of historical debris flow disaster data and historical meteorological rainfall data in Kangding City, the relationship between debris flow disaster and rainfall in Kangding City was revealed. On the basis, the early warning indexs of debris flow induced by 1-hour and 3-hour rainfall in Kangding City were developed. The possibility of debris flow disaster occurs in all parts of Kangding City, and the eastern region is highly prone to debris flow. The occurrence of debris flow disaster in Kangding City is closely related to daily rainfall, short-term heavy rainfall and early effective rainfall. Debris flow is prone to occur in months with heavy rainfall and strong rainfall intensity (June to August). The greater the intensity of short-term heavy rainfall is, the greater the risk of disasters is. The period with the highest frequency of heavy precipitation (19:00~02:00) is also the period with high occurrence of debris flow. When the precipitation intensity is less than 10mm/h and 20mm/h, debris flow is possible, and the meteorological risk level of debris flow disasater is 4~5. When the precipitation intensity is 10~20mm/h and 21~35mm/3h, debris flow is more likely to occur, and the meteorological risk level of debris flow disaster is level 3. When the precipitation intensity is 21~35mm/h and 36~50mm/3h, debris flow is more likely to occur, and the meteorological risk level of debris flow disaster is level 2. When the precipitation intensity is greater than 35mm/h and 50mm/3h, debris flow is very likely to occur, and the meteorological risk level of debris flow disaster is level 1.